Coronavirus discussion

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Slap Shot » Tue Apr 07 3:00 pm

Currently under construction.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Tue Apr 07 3:45 pm

Is governor Walz out of the bunker yet?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by JWG » Tue Apr 07 3:57 pm

Slap Shot wrote:
Tue Apr 07 3:00 pm
The broader impact to the U is astounding. Didn't know they had that many revenue generating activities.
Given the proximity of things on campus (large lecture halls, housing, sports venues), it's hard to fathom that any of that is allowable without a mitigation tool (vaccine, treatment, wide spread testing).
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Composer » Tue Apr 07 6:16 pm

Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Wed Mar 18 4:01 pm
Composer wrote:
Wed Mar 18 3:26 pm
Continual count updates here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... lian-media

US total cases is increasing 30% per day (exponentially)
At that rate, by March 31st, the cumulative total will be 350,000.
And that is with limited testing. One way to tell how limited our testing is, we have 127 deaths and 106 recovered.
South Korea, which is doing a lot of testing, has 84 deaths and 1540 recovered--a much more palatable ratio.
(Still 5%, but even they aren't testing everybody)
Calm down. It won’t be linear.
I guess you were right. I was off by 6 days.
Covid 0407.png
The good news, the rate of increase has been coming down--under 10% per day now (a rate that would still double every 8-9 days) But we've come a long way.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Tue Apr 07 6:24 pm

Composer wrote:
Tue Apr 07 6:16 pm
Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Wed Mar 18 4:01 pm
Composer wrote:
Wed Mar 18 3:26 pm
Continual count updates here:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... lian-media

US total cases is increasing 30% per day (exponentially)
At that rate, by March 31st, the cumulative total will be 350,000.
And that is with limited testing. One way to tell how limited our testing is, we have 127 deaths and 106 recovered.
South Korea, which is doing a lot of testing, has 84 deaths and 1540 recovered--a much more palatable ratio.
(Still 5%, but even they aren't testing everybody)
Calm down. It won’t be linear.
I guess you were right. I was off by 6 days.
Covid 0407.png
The good news, the rate of increase has been coming down--under 10% per day now (a rate that would still double every 8-9 days) But we've come a long way.
Wow. That is good news. Nice chart.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm

I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients. It is cheap and the supply chain is not controlled by a certain communist country. India is a major supplier.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bonin21 » Tue Apr 07 8:40 pm

Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm
I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients. It is cheap and the supply chain is not controlled by a certain communist country. India is a major supplier.
Mayo Clinic cardiologist: 'Inexcusable' to ignore hydroxychloroquine side effects
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... s-n1178776
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Tue Apr 07 8:45 pm

Bonin21 wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:40 pm
Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm
I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients. It is cheap and the supply chain is not controlled by a certain communist country. India is a major supplier.
Mayo Clinic cardiologist: 'Inexcusable' to ignore hydroxychloroquine side effects
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... s-n1178776
Any drug has side effects to certain people. Go find another link.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Slap Shot » Tue Apr 07 8:57 pm

Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm
I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients.
You shouldn't be. There's way too much out there calling into question even still at this point.
Currently under construction.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Tue Apr 07 9:07 pm

Slap Shot wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:57 pm
Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm
I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients.
You shouldn't be. There's way too much out there calling into question even still at this point.
Ok. What’s out there?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Tue Apr 07 9:20 pm

John Prine dies of complications from Co-vid. RIP

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by The Rube » Tue Apr 07 9:37 pm

gopherguy06 wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:08 am
It could be too the folks that are using Uber Eats are more millenials and what not and those are their food choices as opposed to the most popular takeout
This. IIRC, there is American, Tibetan, Chinese (well, American Chinese), Brazilian, Vietnamese, and Mexican, just in downtown Hopkins. Obviously many more options in a place like Uptown or proper Minneapolis. To add to gg06's post, these mostly are not places like Taco Hell or LeeAnn Chin's, for "foreign" foods.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by 00xtremeninja » Tue Apr 07 9:59 pm

Really wish my mother in law who has RA could get her script of Hydroxychloroquine filled. But that wont happen for who knows how long now. Been taking that regularly for a while now as have many others.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Slap Shot » Wed Apr 08 12:26 am

Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 9:07 pm
Slap Shot wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:57 pm
Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm
I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients.
You shouldn't be. There's way too much out there calling into question even still at this point.
Ok. What’s out there?
PM sent.
Currently under construction.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by frozen4champs » Wed Apr 08 10:04 am

I would go with #2

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Wed Apr 08 10:26 am

There has been a lot of talk about the national stockpile lately from drugs to ventilators. From what I have read there seems to be a lack of understanding of what it is and what/when/how it is to be used. This interview lays everything out nicely in an unbiased/apolitical format.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/q-a-with-g ... stockpile/

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Wed Apr 08 10:31 am

frozen4champs wrote:
Wed Apr 08 10:04 am
I would go with #2
Some big names missing off that list.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Cowgirl » Wed Apr 08 11:36 am

frozen4champs wrote:
Wed Apr 08 10:04 am
I would go with #2
What is the challenge....pick one to be stuck in?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Norm » Wed Apr 08 11:52 am

I saw an interesting story on the news about the toilet paper shortage. It isn't so much that people are hoarding it, but our usage has changed from work and school to home use. The tp that is sold in stores for home use is a little wider and a little plusher than what is used in offices and schools etc. The manufacturers can't just switch from one to the other.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Steve MN » Wed Apr 08 11:59 am

Norm wrote:
Wed Apr 08 11:52 am
I saw an interesting story on the news about the toilet paper shortage. It isn't so much that people are hoarding it, but our usage has changed from work and school to home use. The tp that is sold in stores for home use is a little wider and a little plusher than what is used in offices and schools etc. The manufacturers can't just switch from one to the other.
I think I read the same (or at least a similar) article, and my problem with the conclusion is that the TP shortage started a month ago when the stay-at-home had only just started nationwide, so any increased usage by people being at home instead of the office/school couldn't possibly have had time to take effect yet.

By now, maybe that effect has started to kick in, but so many people hoarded so much early on that it's hard to say how much of it flying off the shelves still is that people are running low, vs "I haven't seen this in weeks, I've got to grab as much as I can right now" even if they don't, strictly speaking, need it right then.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bonin21 » Wed Apr 08 12:00 pm

The hoarding is still irrational unless everything else on hand (food, paper towels, etc.) is also being hoarded to that level and the plan is to not leave the house for like 6 months.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by frozen4champs » Wed Apr 08 12:02 pm

Cowgirl wrote:
Wed Apr 08 11:36 am
frozen4champs wrote:
Wed Apr 08 10:04 am
I would go with #2
What is the challenge....pick one to be stuck in?
Need to pick one. They were not clear, but it is a take off of similar lists popping up on twitter or facebook.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by george » Wed Apr 08 12:38 pm

:)
Cowgirl wrote:
Wed Apr 08 11:36 am
frozen4champs wrote:
Wed Apr 08 10:04 am
I would go with #2
What is the challenge....pick one to be stuck in?
If that's the case, #5. Krissy and Gigi for sure. :wink:

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bonin21 » Wed Apr 08 12:47 pm

I've definitely noticed people driving like fricking idiots.
https://www.startribune.com/fatal-crash ... 569473872/
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Wed Apr 08 1:04 pm

Steve MN wrote:
Wed Apr 08 11:59 am
Norm wrote:
Wed Apr 08 11:52 am
I saw an interesting story on the news about the toilet paper shortage. It isn't so much that people are hoarding it, but our usage has changed from work and school to home use. The tp that is sold in stores for home use is a little wider and a little plusher than what is used in offices and schools etc. The manufacturers can't just switch from one to the other.
I think I read the same (or at least a similar) article, and my problem with the conclusion is that the TP shortage started a month ago when the stay-at-home had only just started nationwide, so any increased usage by people being at home instead of the office/school couldn't possibly have had time to take effect yet.

By now, maybe that effect has started to kick in, but so many people hoarded so much early on that it's hard to say how much of it flying off the shelves still is that people are running low, vs "I haven't seen this in weeks, I've got to grab as much as I can right now" even if they don't, strictly speaking, need it right then.
If people have changed from low grade work/school TP purchased in bulk at industrial supply companies to high grade TP purchased at retail stores I can see the demand for retail store TP doubling and difficult to keep in stock.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by F Da Sue » Wed Apr 08 1:13 pm

Norm wrote:
Wed Apr 08 11:52 am
I saw an interesting story on the news about the toilet paper shortage. It isn't so much that people are hoarding it, but our usage has changed from work and school to home use. The tp that is sold in stores for home use is a little wider and a little plusher than what is used in offices and schools etc. The manufacturers can't just switch from one to the other.
Plus the factories were already running at full capacity in a low margin business before the pandemic. Expanding is not an an option since they won't need the extra capacity a few months from now.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Jupiter » Wed Apr 08 1:14 pm

Here is the story I saw and posted on FB the other day...

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage
It isn’t really about hoarding. And there isn’t an easy fix.

https://marker.medium.com/what-everyone ... 12e1358fe0

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by thinkbui » Wed Apr 08 2:06 pm

Well that explains how my mom was able to order a case full of the commercial stuff the other day.

I've just been taking a quick shower instead of wiping and some of my friends have bought bidets.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Wed Apr 08 2:12 pm

Stay at home order until May 4th. Peaking into July. Can we get a second opinion?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bonin21 » Wed Apr 08 2:15 pm

Ya you can get a second opinion from medical experts that will say the same thing.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by frozen4champs » Wed Apr 08 2:50 pm

Waibel is a farmer. :good2:
Last edited by frozen4champs on Wed Apr 08 2:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by frozen4champs » Wed Apr 08 3:01 pm

80 of South Dakota's 390 cases are in 1 spot. The meat packing place in SF. It also is 80 out of the 228 cases in Minnehaha County .

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Wed Apr 08 3:02 pm

Early tests show cats and ferrets are susceptible to coronavirus, but not dogs, pigs, or (farm) birds.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-your-d ... ronavirus/

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by team22tank » Wed Apr 08 3:04 pm

Bertogliat wrote:
Wed Apr 08 3:02 pm
Early tests show cats and ferrets are susceptible to coronavirus, but not dogs, pigs, or (farm) birds.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-your-d ... ronavirus/
Is it recommend that they wear a mask?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Wed Apr 08 3:06 pm

team22tank wrote:
Wed Apr 08 3:04 pm
Bertogliat wrote:
Wed Apr 08 3:02 pm
Early tests show cats and ferrets are susceptible to coronavirus, but not dogs, pigs, or (farm) birds.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-your-d ... ronavirus/
Is it recommend that they wear a mask?
They do recommend people not let their outdoor cats to go out for a while.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Greyeagle » Wed Apr 08 3:19 pm

Reminder.
Or :banned:


Greyeagle wrote:
Mon Mar 30 9:05 am
Hi All - Let's try this again and please do your best to keep political opinion out of the discussion - yours and others.
To paraphrase a Supreme Court Justice about another touchy subject (porn)....."I can't define it but I know it when I see it."

Obviously there is a directly link between this crisis and politics but if you keep this civil there will not be a problem. I would suggest not posting links to tweets from obviously biased sources such as the DNC, RNC, activists within the political world, ect. I would extend that to the tweets from politicians which are more about campaigning and not providing fact based updates.

If I (and I suspect @Jupiter & @Bert will agree) see anything I don't like I will delete it without explanation. This will include responses, too.

Don't question action we take in the thread, these posts will be deleted, too. PM questions. Don't make us break out the :banned: :club:

Ok? Ready?

Someone say "1-2-3 go!!!
(name that movie :) )
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by thinkbui » Wed Apr 08 3:30 pm

How about memes to lighten the mood?
FB_IMG_1586138380220.jpg
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Wed Apr 08 3:35 pm

Greyeagle wrote:
Wed Apr 08 3:19 pm
Reminder.
Or :banned:


Greyeagle wrote:
Mon Mar 30 9:05 am
Hi All - Let's try this again and please do your best to keep political opinion out of the discussion - yours and others.
To paraphrase a Supreme Court Justice about another touchy subject (porn)....."I can't define it but I know it when I see it."

Obviously there is a directly link between this crisis and politics but if you keep this civil there will not be a problem. I would suggest not posting links to tweets from obviously biased sources such as the DNC, RNC, activists within the political world, ect. I would extend that to the tweets from politicians which are more about campaigning and not providing fact based updates.

If I (and I suspect @Jupiter & @Bert will agree) see anything I don't like I will delete it without explanation. This will include responses, too.

Don't question action we take in the thread, these posts will be deleted, too. PM questions. Don't make us break out the :banned: :club:

Ok? Ready?

Someone say "1-2-3 go!!!
(name that movie :) )
:confused2:

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by frozen4champs » Wed Apr 08 3:41 pm

Bertogliat wrote:
Wed Apr 08 3:35 pm
Greyeagle wrote:
Wed Apr 08 3:19 pm
Reminder.
Or :banned:


Greyeagle wrote:
Mon Mar 30 9:05 am
Hi All - Let's try this again and please do your best to keep political opinion out of the discussion - yours and others.
To paraphrase a Supreme Court Justice about another touchy subject (porn)....."I can't define it but I know it when I see it."

Obviously there is a directly link between this crisis and politics but if you keep this civil there will not be a problem. I would suggest not posting links to tweets from obviously biased sources such as the DNC, RNC, activists within the political world, ect. I would extend that to the tweets from politicians which are more about campaigning and not providing fact based updates.

If I (and I suspect @Jupiter & @Bert will agree) see anything I don't like I will delete it without explanation. This will include responses, too.

Don't question action we take in the thread, these posts will be deleted, too. PM questions. Don't make us break out the :banned: :club:

Ok? Ready?

Someone say "1-2-3 go!!!
(name that movie :) )
:confused2:
It was not aimed at you Bertogliat. There was a flareup between a couple of others and Greyeagle put out the fire before it got out of hand.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by MNNavy » Wed Apr 08 3:46 pm

Bertogliat wrote:
Wed Apr 08 3:02 pm
Early tests show cats and ferrets are susceptible to coronavirus, but not dogs, pigs, or (farm) birds.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-your-d ... ronavirus/
Yet another reason why dogs >>>> cats.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by george » Wed Apr 08 4:35 pm


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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by JWG » Wed Apr 08 4:37 pm

Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Wed Apr 08 2:12 pm
Stay at home order until May 4th. Peaking into July. Can we get a second opinion?
This doesn't change much. The two weeks prior to the stay at home order and the last two weeks have been the same for us. Bars, restaurants, entertainment industry, sports, and schools were all already closed through 5/1. It just feels like aligning everything to that same date and continuing what we'd been doing prior to the order.

I've reset my hopes that I can have some type of July 4th experience.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bladepuller » Wed Apr 08 4:37 pm

May 4th now.
That will be making things very interesting at Mille Lacs.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by JC65 » Wed Apr 08 5:01 pm

I'm not surprised at the extension by Walz and think it's the right thing to do. I also think that people in the know need to start making sure people know that even when the stay-at-home orders are lifted, there's not just a light switch that can be turned from off->on... We don't know enough about the virus and it's after-effects yet.

(I'm not an expert, but I am a rewards member at Holiday Inn Express).

One article I saw yesterday, which I can't find now and who's source I can't vouch for, made mention that antibody tests conducted in China on survivors showed surprisingly low levels of antibodies in their blood. This might mean (though it's too soon to tell) that the immunity granted by surviving the disease (or getting a vaccine) might be fleeting and re-infections or boosters of the vaccine might be needed

I just don't think we know enough yet, and I worry too many people are looking at the date set by the Governor as the "it's all over and everything's normal again" date. I just don't think that's realistic.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by JWG » Wed Apr 08 5:12 pm

JC65 wrote:
Wed Apr 08 5:01 pm

(I'm not an expert, but I am a rewards member at Holiday Inn Express).
Well fortunately, it appears your rewards status will be extended until 2022.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Wed Apr 08 6:17 pm



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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Composer » Wed Apr 08 6:29 pm

Open up now? We have decreased the growth rate of infections, but it is still a 10% exponential growth. Also, the current number of infected people is in the range of 10x what it was when we shut down. Open up now and the higher exponential growth comes back, but starting at a much higher level.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by D2D » Wed Apr 08 8:53 pm

george wrote:
Wed Apr 08 4:35 pm
Something hopeful:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/202 ... entilator/
"The treatment, known as convalescent plasma (CP) therapy, was used during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic before vaccines or antivirals were available."

Why did this therapy take so long to be "discovered" and is now getting headlines as being a "breakthrough", when it was first used over 100 years ago?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by george » Wed Apr 08 9:05 pm

D2D wrote:
Wed Apr 08 8:53 pm
george wrote:
Wed Apr 08 4:35 pm
Something hopeful:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/202 ... entilator/
"The treatment, known as convalescent plasma (CP) therapy, was used during the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic before vaccines or antivirals were available."

Why did this therapy take so long to be "discovered" and is now getting headlines as being a "breakthrough", when it was first used over 100 years ago?
It didn't take long to be discovered. I read discussions about the possibility weeks ago. The medical community knows about it, it's just the media who didn't know about it.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Snowcool08 » Wed Apr 08 9:16 pm

There hasn’t been one therapy that has 100% worked. The plasma therapy is good in theory, but nobody knows if the patients get better because they’re body is finally working or if the plasma worked. There’s so many trials being done right now with so many drugs. Hopefully one works or one concoction of drugs works. It doesn’t feel like it’s going that way though.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by team22tank » Wed Apr 08 9:30 pm


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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by 5 O.T. » Wed Apr 08 9:44 pm

Bonin21 wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:40 pm
Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm
I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients. It is cheap and the supply chain is not controlled by a certain communist country. India is a major supplier.
Mayo Clinic cardiologist: 'Inexcusable' to ignore hydroxychloroquine side effects
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... s-n1178776
You should have read all the way to the bottom of the article instead of just looking at the headline. What the Dr. says about Hydrochloroquine contradicts the biased slant of the headline. Consider the source.
Yes, these medications overall are really ,really safe, so in that sense the President is right. But really safe in a population sense doesn't mean that drug is going to be safe enough for the particular patient I'm about to treat, he said.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bladepuller » Wed Apr 08 9:51 pm

Science v internet message boards?
I'll take Science.
Edit:
I have had dealings with some MDs that may have been whizzes in organic chem., but didn't have the common sense of a goose.
Doctors bury their mistakes.
Carpenters fix their's. 😘
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Slap Shot » Thu Apr 09 12:43 am

5 O.T. wrote:
Wed Apr 08 9:44 pm
Bonin21 wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:40 pm
Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Tue Apr 07 8:36 pm
I am encouraged from what I am hearing about Hydroxychloroquine used in hospitalized patients. It is cheap and the supply chain is not controlled by a certain communist country. India is a major supplier.
Mayo Clinic cardiologist: 'Inexcusable' to ignore hydroxychloroquine side effects
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... s-n1178776
You should have read all the way to the bottom of the article instead of just looking at the headline. What the Dr. says about Hydrochloroquine contradicts the biased slant of the headline. Consider the source.
Yes, these medications overall are really ,really safe, so in that sense the President is right. But really safe in a population sense doesn't mean that drug is going to be safe enough for the particular patient I'm about to treat, he said.
Your very own quote supports the notion it would be inexcusable to consider possible side effects. Additionally:
In fact, a small recent study showed that up to 11 percent of coronavirus patients on hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin are in the so-called "red zone" for potential cardiac side effects.

"They've entered the danger zone," Ackerman said. "That is not just my hunch that patients are going to be reacting to this drug — but they are reacting to this drug."
Combined with the fact they don't have any certain opinions on the efficacy of the drug and we are still in the wait and see/proceed with extreme caution stages. I hope they will be able to advance it along quickly just like everyone else.
Currently under construction.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Thu Apr 09 8:46 am

I think the idea with hydroxylchloroquine is that is an approved drug with long known side effects/risks. And while it may not be a drug doctors should give to patients at risk of cardiac events, it may be less risky for the remaining population than fighting off the virus alone.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by team22tank » Thu Apr 09 9:42 am

Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 8:46 am
I think the idea with hydroxylchloroquine is that is an approved drug with long known side effects/risks. And while it may not be a drug doctors should give to patients at risk of cardiac events, it may be less risky for the remaining population than fighting off the virus alone.
Not replying to you directly, this is just the last post.

At the end of the day it is (or should be) between a doctor and patient to do what makes the most sense.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Norm » Thu Apr 09 9:46 am

Just wondering, with the way we're now living, has there been a decrease in other things like the common cold?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Thu Apr 09 10:02 am

Norm wrote:
Thu Apr 09 9:46 am
Just wondering, with the way we're now living, has there been a decrease in other things like the common cold?
I doubt we'll ever get an estimate since we (as a country) are so focused on COVID and the lack of testing for minor symptoms won't help differentiate, but I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff. I'll be curious to see what happens to the crime rates Not only because people are staying at home, but who wants to be at risk in a jail/prison these days?

One of my cop friend's said their (large) department was not responding to calls unless they were "active" or "in-process."

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Thu Apr 09 10:39 am

Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
Norm wrote:
Thu Apr 09 9:46 am
Just wondering, with the way we're now living, has there been a decrease in other things like the common cold?
I doubt we'll ever get an estimate since we (as a country) are so focused on COVID and the lack of testing for minor symptoms won't help differentiate, but I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff. I'll be curious to see what happens to the crime rates Not only because people are staying at home, but who wants to be at risk in a jail/prison these days?

One of my cop friend's said their (large) department was not responding to calls unless they were "active" or "in-process."
I would expect not only crime to rise, but drug overdoses, suicides, domestic violence, and alcoholism with the unemployment rate skyrocketing. Are they modeling that at the command center?

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by skiier32 » Thu Apr 09 11:15 am

Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
Norm wrote:
Thu Apr 09 9:46 am
Just wondering, with the way we're now living, has there been a decrease in other things like the common cold?
I doubt we'll ever get an estimate since we (as a country) are so focused on COVID and the lack of testing for minor symptoms won't help differentiate, but I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff. I'll be curious to see what happens to the crime rates Not only because people are staying at home, but who wants to be at risk in a jail/prison these days?

One of my cop friend's said their (large) department was not responding to calls unless they were "active" or "in-process."
Unfortunately auto deaths have increased. Speed and stupidly have increased with less people on the road.

https://kstp.com/traffic/fatal-crashes- ... ?cat=12546

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by kmd » Thu Apr 09 11:27 am

Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff.
That doesn't sound right. The following article has a animated graph that compares the average number of daily deaths by cause (heart disease, cancer, stroke, accident, suicide, etc.) with the average number of daily deaths from coronavirus as it has varied over the past month. With many places having delayed stay-at-home orders and not being close to hitting their peak, it's getting to the point where you would literally need to cure cancer (all of them) in order to pull even.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... aphic.html

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Thu Apr 09 11:36 am

kmd wrote:
Thu Apr 09 11:27 am
Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff.
That doesn't sound right. The following article has a animated graph that compares the average number of daily deaths by cause (heart disease, cancer, stroke, accident, suicide, etc.) with the average number of daily deaths from coronavirus as it has varied over the past month. With many places having delayed stay-at-home orders and not being close to hitting their peak, it's getting to the point where you would literally need to cure cancer (all of them) in order to pull even.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... aphic.html
Dr. Birx was saying the models are looking like 60,000 instead of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. Also the the hospital bed and ventilator use numbers were looking better. What we need is antibody testing ASAP.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by kmd » Thu Apr 09 11:52 am

Technically there are multiple 'models', and the result of the model can vary by quite a bit if you change the inputs. The original 100k-200k death toll prediction was based on about 50% public compliance with social distancing/stay at home order, when it's appearing that public compliance is closer to 90%. Just because the 'spike' is lower than one grossly exaggerated projection doesn't mean the spike still isn't going to exceed our medical capacity.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Orion » Thu Apr 09 11:55 am

Agreed on the testing needed ASAP.

Tomorrow the MDH is going to give details on the U of MN model at 11am. One difference I've heard versus the national projections is timeframe. The U projections are for the next full year while the national models are only through the first part of August

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Snowcool08 » Thu Apr 09 12:13 pm

Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Thu Apr 09 11:36 am
kmd wrote:
Thu Apr 09 11:27 am
Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff.
That doesn't sound right. The following article has a animated graph that compares the average number of daily deaths by cause (heart disease, cancer, stroke, accident, suicide, etc.) with the average number of daily deaths from coronavirus as it has varied over the past month. With many places having delayed stay-at-home orders and not being close to hitting their peak, it's getting to the point where you would literally need to cure cancer (all of them) in order to pull even.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... aphic.html
Dr. Birx was saying the models are looking like 60,000 instead of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. Also the the hospital bed and ventilator use numbers were looking better. What we need is antibody testing ASAP.
We need regular testing too. Antibody testing will be good to see who has had it, but we need mass testing to determine where hotspots are and to prevent the spread quicker.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Bertogliat » Thu Apr 09 12:57 pm

skiier32 wrote:
Thu Apr 09 11:15 am
Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
Norm wrote:
Thu Apr 09 9:46 am
Just wondering, with the way we're now living, has there been a decrease in other things like the common cold?
I doubt we'll ever get an estimate since we (as a country) are so focused on COVID and the lack of testing for minor symptoms won't help differentiate, but I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff. I'll be curious to see what happens to the crime rates Not only because people are staying at home, but who wants to be at risk in a jail/prison these days?

One of my cop friend's said their (large) department was not responding to calls unless they were "active" or "in-process."
Unfortunately auto deaths have increased. Speed and stupidly have increased with less people on the road.

https://kstp.com/traffic/fatal-crashes- ... ?cat=12546
I'll be curious how this looks at the end. My insurance company (Travelers) is giving its auto customers a 15% credit for April and May due to so many people working from home. This isn't likely to happen without a reduction of insurance claims.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by frozen4champs » Thu Apr 09 1:19 pm


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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by skiier32 » Thu Apr 09 1:59 pm

Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 12:57 pm
skiier32 wrote:
Thu Apr 09 11:15 am
Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
Norm wrote:
Thu Apr 09 9:46 am
Just wondering, with the way we're now living, has there been a decrease in other things like the common cold?
I doubt we'll ever get an estimate since we (as a country) are so focused on COVID and the lack of testing for minor symptoms won't help differentiate, but I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff. I'll be curious to see what happens to the crime rates Not only because people are staying at home, but who wants to be at risk in a jail/prison these days?

One of my cop friend's said their (large) department was not responding to calls unless they were "active" or "in-process."
Unfortunately auto deaths have increased. Speed and stupidly have increased with less people on the road.

https://kstp.com/traffic/fatal-crashes- ... ?cat=12546
I'll be curious how this looks at the end. My insurance company (Travelers) is giving its auto customers a 15% credit for April and May due to so many people working from home. This isn't likely to happen without a reduction of insurance claims.
The number of claims are down and the resulting payments are down. But fatal crashes are up. Many insurance carriers have announces refunds for the coming months, Progressive so far is the largest dollar wise at 1 billion for the April and May. They are all filing these with the state commissioners for approval. More will follow soon.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Thu Apr 09 2:38 pm

Snowcool08 wrote:
Thu Apr 09 12:13 pm
Grovetown Scotty wrote:
Thu Apr 09 11:36 am
kmd wrote:
Thu Apr 09 11:27 am
Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
I have seen articles that predict number of deaths in the US will decrease despite the large number of predicted COVID deaths. Not only will we see a drop in viral infections, but automobile deaths will fall off a cliff.
That doesn't sound right. The following article has a animated graph that compares the average number of daily deaths by cause (heart disease, cancer, stroke, accident, suicide, etc.) with the average number of daily deaths from coronavirus as it has varied over the past month. With many places having delayed stay-at-home orders and not being close to hitting their peak, it's getting to the point where you would literally need to cure cancer (all of them) in order to pull even.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2020/04 ... aphic.html
Dr. Birx was saying the models are looking like 60,000 instead of 100,000 to 200,000 deaths. Also the the hospital bed and ventilator use numbers were looking better. What we need is antibody testing ASAP.
We need regular testing too. Antibody testing will be good to see who has had it, but we need mass testing to determine where hotspots are and to prevent the spread quicker.
I agree we need more testing to find where the hotspots are, but also to keep the modelers from telling us there could be a least 10X that many people infected when they don't really know that for a fact.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Snowcool08 » Thu Apr 09 2:56 pm

If we can’t get normal testing done in a swift manner, what makes you think that we will get antibody testing done quicker? Those tests are nowhere near available for wide release.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by D2D » Thu Apr 09 3:01 pm

Bertogliat wrote:
Thu Apr 09 10:02 am
I'll be curious to see what happens to the crime rates Not only because people are staying at home, but who wants to be at risk in a jail/prison these days?
On the other hand, with so many people wearing masks someone intending to rob a drugstore while wearing one wouldn't attract attention.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Thu Apr 09 3:04 pm

Snowcool08 wrote:
Thu Apr 09 2:56 pm
If we can’t get normal testing done in a swift manner, what makes you think that we will get antibody testing done quicker? Those tests are nowhere near available for wide release.
There is a company that has makes them and I believe it was a finger prick blood test. I will see if I can find the information.

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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by JWG » Thu Apr 09 3:17 pm

Today was a rough update day for new cases and deaths.
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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by 5 O.T. » Thu Apr 09 3:17 pm

Coming to a neighborhood near you....


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Re: Coronavirus discussion

Post by Grovetown Scotty » Thu Apr 09 3:31 pm

Evidently there is a 15 minute antibody finger prick blood test that was developed in Germany to detect Covid-19 antibodies. There is a company that has them ready to ship but is awaiting FDA approval.

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