dxmnkd316 wrote:First, you guys are reading these graphs wrong. They are from the umpire's perspective. Mauer is on the right hand side of these graphs. The second pitch was high and inside.
I was wondering why Trix was saying it was up and away... That's how I was reading it too (from the umpire's perspective). I was a little confused.
dxmnkd316 wrote:His job is to get a hit there.
No. It isn't. His job is to get the run in. It's bottom 8 in a tie game and the potential game-winning run is on 3rd base. The job is to get that runner to move another 90 feet. No more, no less. If he does that with a hit, great. If he does that with a fly ball, great. If he does it with a moon-bounce grounder to SS, great. His job is to get the run in.
dxmnkd316 wrote:You want a guy who’s going to have an actual approach to an at bat rather than swinging at every strike. Just because it’s over the plate doesn’t mean you can get it to the outfield. The only pitch that could remotely meet that criteria is the second pitch.
A guy with as good of bat control as Mauer, in fact, most MLB hitters, should be able to hit a fly ball on virtually any pitch near the zone if they have the right approach. Please don't say "You want a guy who's going to have an actual approach to an at bat rather than swinging at every strike," like it's some words of wisdom. Every hitter in professional baseball has an approach. Some guys like to be aggressive early in the count because that is the most-likely time to see a fastball in the zone (because if the P gets ahead he can mess around with offspeed stuff)--guys like Delmon, Vlad, etc.. Other guys like to work the pitcher and see if they can force a mistake. This is Mauer's approach. It's fine for what he wants to do (hit for a high average and a good OBP). It sucks for driving in runs. He waits and waits and waits and if he gets into a hole he has to hit a pitcher's pitch. Which is why he ended up swinging at a nasty pitch on a 3-2 count. He gave himself no choice but to swing at that pitch by taking the first 2-3 that were around the zone and hittable. He was looking for a perfect pitch to hit rather than looking for a pitch to do his job.
dxmnkd316 wrote:A two-seam fastball thrown by a left hander. It’s high and tight and since it’s a two-seamer, it’s cutting back towards Mauer late. That’s a good way to shatter a bat and get you nothing. The other two strikes (a curve and a changeup) were hardly worth swinging at. The curve would have been especially egregious if he swung.
On top of all of that, this was the first time Mauer had faced this pitcher that night and the first pitch was an 83 mph slider only to be elevated to a 96 mph two-seamer.
I have a hard time believing a guy who has a career average fastball speed of 93mph has a 2-seamer that runs in there at 96mph with as much movement as you're saying, especially considering 2-seam fastballs generally are 1-3mph slower than 4-seamers.
Not to mention Mauer has seen Morales 2 previous times and was 1/2. It's not like he hasn't seen most (if not all) of what Morales has to offer.