Twins 2012 season

[h8red]

Anybody road tripping to Cincy for the series at the end of June? I'll definitely be heading up for Saturday's game if anyone's interested in grabbing a beer...

Do they have a statue of Marge Schott (sp.?) outside the stadium? If so, is she smoking a cigarette & flipping someone off?

[dxmnkd316]

Josh WIllingham is the best free agent acquisition I can remember seeing for the Twins (at this point in the season).

[dxmnkd316]

Where does the 80% chance come from?

You said they wont come in last. That leaves 4 positions out of 5 (since there is 5 teams in the Central) where you would be correct. (1, 2, 3, or 4) That means you have an 80% chance of being right...which basically means you wussed out on your prediction.

Please, dont get into why that isnt right using some stat. It was a joke

Parents: This is why you need to make sure your kids do their math homework.

[Chris83]

Josh WIllingham is the best free agent acquisition I can remember seeing for the Twins (at this point in the season).

[dxmnkd316]

TWINS WIN!!! TWINS WIN!!!! WIN TWINS!!!!!!!!!

[Bushwood Gopher]

Josh WIllingham is the best free agent acquisition I can remember seeing for the Twins (at this point in the season).

That's not really being fair to Sid Ponson.

[rowshkex]

Josh WIllingham is the best free agent acquisition I can remember seeing for the Twins (at this point in the season).

You can hate Livan Hernandez all you want, but he's a WINNER.

[Handyman]

Where does the 80% chance come from?

You said they wont come in last. That leaves 4 positions out of 5 (since there is 5 teams in the Central) where you would be correct. (1, 2, 3, or 4) That means you have an 80% chance of being right...which basically means you wussed out on your prediction.

Please, dont get into why that isnt right using some stat. It was a joke

Parents: This is why you need to make sure your kids do their math homework.

Soooo...4 out of 5 does not equal 80%? I may not have a graph handy to prove it but I am pretty sure I am right on that one

Now if you want to break it down into actual statistics then I am sure it is wrong but all you said was 'The Twins wont finish in last." That means to be right they need only not finish in last. So on that basis alone I am correct. If it makes you feel better to break it down further, well have at sabermetrics boy

[Tee09]

So by Handy's math, I have a 50% chance of winning the powerball, because I either win, or I don't.

[Greyeagle]

So by Handy's math, I have a 50% chance of winning the powerball, because I either win, or I don't.

If you're not first, you're last.

[Tee09]

So by Handy's math, I have a 50% chance of winning the powerball, because I either win, or I don't.

If you're not first, you're last.

You know, if you're the Twins, that's not exactly a bad rule of thumb.

[Bash Brother]

Twins with another spectacular performance today.

Trailing 5-0 in the 6th.

[streakygopher]

Twins with another spectacular performance today.

Trailing 5-0 in the 6th.

Lost 6-2, the "ace" with another flop outing. This team has the look of one that won't get to the 500 mark this year.

[sec 16 row16 seat 16 17]

eliminated by May.

[Bash Brother]

eliminated before May.

I fixed your typo for you.

[dxmnkd316]

I put the over/under at 6.5 wins this month. So far it's looking like the over might take it still.

Also, Luke Hughes claimed by Oakland. I was hoping he would slip by.

[trixR4kids]

Pavano is more of an ace than Liriano at this point. Liriano just walks too many damn people at least Pavano can keep those down and get a few K's.

[Bash Brother]

I have heard Orlando Hudson may be looking for a job.

Why not right?

[rowshkex]

I have heard Orlando Hudson may be looking for a job.

Why not right?

He's willing to be our fifth starter, right?

[Bash Brother]

Even though he is a 2nd baseman I think he would be our 3rd starter.

[Handyman]

So by Handy's math, I have a 50% chance of winning the powerball, because I either win, or I don't.

Now here is someone who gets it

(it is fun making nerd's heads explode by screwing with statistics )

[gopheritall]

So by Handy's math, I have a 50% chance of winning the powerball, because I either win, or I don't.

Well if you don't buy a ticket then you don't win. So that means if you buy a ticket then you win, right?

[sunbone]

I wonder if the Twins packaged Liriano and Valencia together they could get a doughnut and a rosin bag in return. Because I would take that deal in a heartbeat right now. And the rosin bag would be negotiable.

[gopher wes]

I wonder if the Twins packaged Liriano and Valencia together they could get a doughnut and a rosin bag in return. Because I would take that deal in a heartbeat right now. And the rosin bag would be negotiable.

Which is why I really at the release of Hughes. He couldn't be any worse, hitting wise, at 3rd could he?

[Beauner]

I wonder if the Twins packaged Liriano and Valencia together they could get a doughnut and a rosin bag in return. Because I would take that deal in a heartbeat right now. And the rosin bag would be negotiable.

Only if the donut is 2 days old and had a bite taken out of it. Obviously it couldn't have sprinkles either. That would be too much value.

[sunbone]

I wonder if the Twins packaged Liriano and Valencia together they could get a doughnut and a rosin bag in return. Because I would take that deal in a heartbeat right now. And the rosin bag would be negotiable.

Only if the donut is 2 days old and had a bite taken out of it. Obviously it couldn't have sprinkles either. That would be too much value.

Not the kind of doughnut I was thinking of but in the case of Valencia I'd be willing to discuss the idea of accepting pastry in return.

[Beauner]

I wonder if the Twins packaged Liriano and Valencia together they could get a doughnut and a rosin bag in return. Because I would take that deal in a heartbeat right now. And the rosin bag would be negotiable.

Only if the donut is 2 days old and had a bite taken out of it. Obviously it couldn't have sprinkles either. That would be too much value.

Not the kind of doughnut I was thinking of but in the case of Valencia I'd be willing to discuss the idea of accepting pastry in return.

The other kind of doughnut is too valuable for those 2 clowns.

[dxmnkd316]

Danny V just launched one into orbit to give the Twins a 1-run lead.

[Bushwood Gopher]

Yeah. And if we lose by a run tonight it will be Valencia's fault that his 2 run HR wasn't a grand slam.

[dxmnkd316]

Is Danny V this year's "Twins Fans' Choice for Goat of the Year"?

[Bushwood Gopher]

Is Danny V this year's "Twins Fans' Choice for Goat of the Year"?

He's the goat of fans and Gardenhire. Started last year, which I found ironic given it was his first full season in the bigs and he was the only guy on the roster to play 140+ games.

[Handyman]

Yeah look for Dark Starr and the other Twins shillls to start rumors about him starting in May

#thisyearsdelmonyoung

[Bushwood Gopher]

Yeah look for Dark Starr and the other Twins shillls to start rumors about him starting in May

#thisyearsdelmonyoung

Glad you mentioned that Handy. Dark went into Danny V overdrive before the season even began. Terrible teammate, only worried about his batting avg, cocky (he even wears sunglasses when it's cloudy out!), doesn't do things 'the Twins Way' etc etc....

I'm not suggesting he's an All Star by any means. But for half a mil a year and hitting out of the 7th/8th spot he is more than adequate. And about 34th on my list of what I'd start criticizing re: this ballclub.

[dxmnkd316]

Holy f*knig sh*t.

[Greyeagle]

THAT was a hell of a double play.

[dxmnkd316]

Might not see a finer double play all year. Fielded by the shortstop on the second base side from his belly, with the second baseman having to catch-up to the play, barehand the ball and fire one blindly against momentum, and then having the first baseman stretch it out.

Spectacular.

[murrster]

Who is in the booth with Dick and Bert?

[Greyeagle]

Who is in the booth with Dick and Bert?

TK?

[dxmnkd316]

Oh goody. Jack Jablonski is now invading baseball...

[dxmnkd316]

Holy hustle batman! That was impressive.

[Bushwood Gopher]

It kills me every time I hear TK address Bremer as 'Richard.' Because if anyone was ever a 'Richard' it's Bremer.

[Greyeagle]

Mauer had a Richard at bat.
Willingham could not have had a better at bat - sans hitting it right at the 3rd baseman. Bummer.

[gopherguy13]

Guy on 3rd with no outs. DO NOT strand him there.

I'll probably pull my hair out if we aren't leading at least 6-5 after this inning.

[gopherguy13]

Guy on 3rd with no outs. DO NOT strand him there.

I'll probably pull my hair out if we aren't leading at least 6-5 after this inning.

[Armadillo]

Guy on 3rd with no outs. DO NOT strand him there.

I'll probably pull my hair out if we aren't leading at least 6-5 after this inning.

Do you look like you just came from an explosion at the Nair factory?

[trixR4kids]

Mauer had a Richard at bat.
Willingham could not have had a better at bat - sans hitting it right at the 3rd baseman. Bummer.

Mauer had a decent at bat he just got eaten up by a lefty. Red Sox look like crap recently so I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins won the next two.

[dxmnkd316]

Mauer had a Richard at bat.
Willingham could not have had a better at bat - sans hitting it right at the 3rd baseman. Bummer.

Mauer had a decent at bat he just got eaten up by a lefty. Red Sox look like crap recently so I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins won the next two.

That's how I felt about the game.

[Bushwood Gopher]

Mauer had a Richard at bat.
Willingham could not have had a better at bat - sans hitting it right at the 3rd baseman. Bummer.

Mauer had a decent at bat he just got eaten up by a lefty. Red Sox look like crap recently so I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins won the next two.

A decent at bat? He didn't get the bat off his shoulders for five pitches and then hit a weak ground ball to first base. It was a textbook example of what I'm talking about when I reference defensive hitting.

[trixR4kids]

Got it to 3-2, swung at a well placed pitched and didn't hit it very well. Against a lefty which obviously isn't all that favorable of a matchup to begin with...

IDK I've seen far worse at bats in situations like that.

[Bushwood Gopher]

Got it to 3-2, swung at a well placed pitched and didn't hit it very well. Against a lefty which obviously isn't all that favorable of a matchup to begin with...

IDK I've seen far worse at bats in situations like that.

And that is precisely my problem with it--he should be up there looking to drive the ball somewhere in play early in the count, not looking to work the count deep. He doesn't have a run producer's mentality. He just doesn't, and it's also why he shouldn't be batting 3rd but that's a different debate for a different time.

[Lars Sauve]

Yet another Minnesota team ready to be slaughtered. Now we can move to the rest of the population.

[trixR4kids]

Yeah he should have driven pitch #1 or 2 out of the park!



He had two decent pitches to hit there and a bunch of crappy ones. He took one and swung at the other. Your argument is silly for this at bat I'm sorry.

[Bushwood Gopher]

Thanks for the graph, it makes my point for me better than I did--three of the six pitches thrown were strikes over the plate and a fourth barely missed the zone. So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

His job isn't to get on base in that spot--it's a tie game and we've got a guy on 3rd with no outs. Maybe you think it is and that's why we disagree. In that situation, he should be looking to expand his hitting zone (compared to what he normally might 'take' in say the first 6 innings or so) and get the ball in play somewhere to try and score a run. Even if it makes him look bad if he swings and misses a couple times. My critique is process/approach related and not outcome related. I wouldn't have even commented if he was up there swinging after the first ball--even if he had struck out.

[dxmnkd316]

So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

You don't get to have a career OBP of .400+ by swinging at every strike. If you want a guy who swings at every strike, take Delmon.

You can't expect a result out of a given at bat without seeing the pitches. I'd be more interested in what pitches were thrown for strikes. Breaking? Offspeed? Fastballs? You don't swing at a pitch because it's over the plate. You sit on a pitch you want and you drive it. Outside the zone? Don't swing. Breaking but over the plate? Evaluate it and determine what the most likely result is if you hit it. Grounder, flyball, etc.

Also, Trix, where did you get that graph?

[monty]

The difference in team approaches to hitting by the Twins and Boston were very evident last night. The Twins think that you can't hit it out of Target Field without the pitcher making a mistake. This causes the Twins to play small ball and try to score runs by putting together multiple hit innings. Boston was just trying to figure out where the ball was going to be pitched and drive it someplace. Mauer never tried to figure out where the pitch was going to be in the his 8th inning at bat, he was trying to make contact, never looking to drive the ball. On all 3 of Boston's home runs the batter was looking for a pitch in specific location. Their first homer the ball was closer to the ground then the batter's knee, and the only way batter can hit that pitch out is if he is looking for the pitch down there. The second homer Ross came to the plate knowing that our pitcher and been starting batters off with inside pitches. The third homer Ross saw that we were working batters low and away when ahead in the count and he was looking for the pitch and drove it opposite field. That pitch should have been high and tight to back him off the plate and then go away.

[psych]

So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

You don't get to have a career OBP of .400+ by swinging at every strike. If you want a guy who swings at every pitch, take Delmon.

You can't expect a result out of a given at bat without seeing the pitches. I'd be more interested in what pitches were thrown for strikes. Breaking? Offspeed? Fastballs? You don't swing at a pitch because it's over the plate. You sit on a pitch you want and you drive it. Outside the zone? Don't swing. Breaking but over the plate? Evaluate it and determine what the most likely result is if you hit it. Grounder, flyball, etc.

Also, Trix, where did you get that graph?

FYP, and

[rowshkex]

So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

You don't get to have a career OBP of .400+ by swinging at every strike. If you want a guy who swings at every strike, take Delmon.

You can't expect a result out of a given at bat without seeing the pitches. I'd be more interested in what pitches were thrown for strikes. Breaking? Offspeed? Fastballs? You don't swing at a pitch because it's over the plate. You sit on a pitch you want and you drive it. Outside the zone? Don't swing. Breaking but over the plate? Evaluate it and determine what the most likely result is if you hit it. Grounder, flyball, etc.

Also, Trix, where did you get that graph?

Agreed.

The funny thing is, it takes me thousands of times longer just to consider these things compared to Mauer. Easily has some of the best plate vision of any player I've seen in my young life.

[dxmnkd316]

So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

You don't get to have a career OBP of .400+ by swinging at every strike. If you want a guy who swings at every pitch, take Delmon.

You can't expect a result out of a given at bat without seeing the pitches. I'd be more interested in what pitches were thrown for strikes. Breaking? Offspeed? Fastballs? You don't swing at a pitch because it's over the plate. You sit on a pitch you want and you drive it. Outside the zone? Don't swing. Breaking but over the plate? Evaluate it and determine what the most likely result is if you hit it. Grounder, flyball, etc.

Also, Trix, where did you get that graph?

FYP, and

Nevermind. I see the website now. I couldn't see it because of my laptop's privacy screen. It blends everything together if they are low contrast.

[dxmnkd316]

So here is the breakdown of pitch types. Only pitch two is what I would consider a driveable ball. However, that's on a 1-0 count and Mauer will probably take that pitch more often than not, especially when coming from a lefty at 95 mph.

[Bushwood Gopher]

So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

You don't get to have a career OBP of .400+ by swinging at every strike. If you want a guy who swings at every strike, take Delmon.

You can't expect a result out of a given at bat without seeing the pitches. I'd be more interested in what pitches were thrown for strikes. Breaking? Offspeed? Fastballs? You don't swing at a pitch because it's over the plate. You sit on a pitch you want and you drive it. Outside the zone? Don't swing. Breaking but over the plate? Evaluate it and determine what the most likely result is if you hit it. Grounder, flyball, etc.

Also, Trix, where did you get that graph?

You and trix are completely missing my point. Getting on base is almost irrelevant there. He has to adjust his plate approach and get the ball in play even if it means an out. A fly ball out to the outfield is more valuable than a walk in that situation. I am somewhat amazed this has to be explained but I have given it my best attempt. His leverage is going to be early in the count, as reflected by pitches 2 - 4. The whole at bat to me looked like he was trying to work a walk. It's the same mentality that can allow him to attempt a bunt in an obvious run scoring situation like he did a year ago. He doesn't have a run producer's mentality. He's an on base guy, which is great but not for that situation specifically or the 3 hole in general.

A diatribe on his career OBP is completely beside the point and only further reinforces what I am saying. Of course he's wonderful at getting on base. That's not what they needed in the 8th inning with a guy on 3rd and no outs.

[sunbone]

Yeah look for Dark Starr and the other Twins shillls to start rumors about him starting in May

#thisyearsdelmonyoung

Glad you mentioned that Handy. Dark went into Danny V overdrive before the season even began. Terrible teammate, only worried about his batting avg, cocky (he even wears sunglasses when it's cloudy out!), doesn't do things 'the Twins Way' etc etc....

I'm not suggesting he's an All Star by any means. But for half a mil a year and hitting out of the 7th/8th spot he is more than adequate. And about 34th on my list of what I'd start criticizing re: this ballclub.

I get that Gardy rips on him so you have the old the enemy of my enemy is my friend bit going with Valencia, but come on man. 34th on your list? He is probably the 3rd worse position player on a crappy team. He is a below average hitter (that may be kind) and a terrible 3rd baseman. I literally can not remember a 3rd baseman that is worse at getting to a ball to his left. I think you know on a good team Dough Head is not your starting 3rd baseman, even if you get him to work for minimum wage. This team needs to jettison some of the losers and he is one of them.

[sunbone]

You and trix are completely missing my point. Getting on base is almost irrelevant there. He has to adjust his plate approach and get the ball in play even if it means an out. A fly ball out to the outfield is more valuable than a walk in that situation. I am somewhat amazed this has to be explained but I have given it my best attempt. His leverage is going to be early in the count, as reflected by pitches 2 - 4. The whole at bat to me looked like he was trying to work a walk. It's the same mentality that can allow him to attempt a bunt in an obvious run scoring situation like he did a year ago. He doesn't have a run producer's mentality. He's an on base guy, which is great but not for that situation specifically or the 3 hole in general.

A diatribe on his career OBP is completely beside the point and only further reinforces what I am saying. Of course he's wonderful at getting on base. That's not what they needed in the 8th inning with a guy on 3rd and no outs.

This drives me nuts about Mauer at times too. He has no concept of situational hitting. Of course he has been very successful with his approach of taking pitches, etc. But like you said there are times you need a base runner and times you need a ball driven. And he never changes his approach. It can be a little maddening at times. He definitely would be better suited to bat 2nd. But as alwways that leaves the question of who bats third. And you better not suggest Valencia.

[rowshkex]

You and trix are completely missing my point. Getting on base is almost irrelevant there. He has to adjust his plate approach and get the ball in play even if it means an out. A fly ball out to the outfield is more valuable than a walk in that situation. I am somewhat amazed this has to be explained but I have given it my best attempt. His leverage is going to be early in the count, as reflected by pitches 2 - 4. The whole at bat to me looked like he was trying to work a walk. It's the same mentality that can allow him to attempt a bunt in an obvious run scoring situation like he did a year ago. He doesn't have a run producer's mentality. He's an on base guy, which is great but not for that situation specifically or the 3 hole in general.

A diatribe on his career OBP is completely beside the point and only further reinforces what I am saying. Of course he's wonderful at getting on base. That's not what they needed in the 8th inning with a guy on 3rd and no outs.

This drives me nuts about Mauer at times too. He has no concept of situational hitting. Of course he has been very successful with his approach of taking pitches, etc. But like you said there are times you need a base runner and times you need a ball driven. And he never changes his approach. It can be a little maddening at times. He definitely would be better suited to bat 2nd. But as alwways that leaves the question of who bats third. And you better not suggest Valencia.

I'll take Alexi Casilla, thank you very much!

or:

I'll take [generic short, thin middle infielder], thank you very much!

[Beauner]

So here is the breakdown of pitch types. Only pitch two is what I would consider a driveable ball. However, that's on a 1-0 count and Mauer will probably take that pitch more often than not, especially when coming from a lefty at 95 mph.

It isn't about "driving the ball" it's about getting the GD run in from 3rd base with nobody out. That means all you have to do is get a fly ball to the outfield. On a 1-0 count, hitters should be ready to jump all over a fastball that is elevated (thigh-belt high) and catches a fat part of the plate. Mauer isn't. Plain and simple. He's more worried about his OBP than driving in runs.
3 of those pitches early in the count are balls elevated enough to get the ball to the outfield (looking back to Trix's graph they are pitch 2, 3, and 4). Yes I realize pitch 3 isn't in the strikezone, but that is not important when your overriding goal is to drive in the run. Pitch 2 is a ball he should be able to hit 300 feet into right field for a sac fly, pitch 3 is a ball he should be able to turn on, especially with as much bat control as he has, and pitch 4 is a pitch that is damn near grooved for him--just over the knees on the outer half of the plate, right in his comfort zone for hitting the ball to left center.

IMO, and this is just based on what I've seen from Mauer, he's more worried about getting on base for the guys behind him than driving in the runners who are on for him. There's nothing wrong with the mentality of having a .425 OBP in general, but it is a bad mentality for a 3 hitter. 3-4-5 in the lineup are supposed to be your run producers--guys with HR power and the mentality that, even if it means hitting a sac fly, I'm making sure that run gets across the plate. Mauer's strategy at the plate seems to be "I want to be on first base for the guys behind me," which is fine for a guy batting in the leadoff spot or the 2-hole so the 3-4-5 guys can drive the ball and get him in.
Mauer doesn't have the run-producing mentality. He's more worried about hitting .330 with a .425 OBP than driving in 100 or scoring 100. It's frustrating because he has every single tool needed to become a 25 HR-100 RBI guy in the 3-hole. He just doesn't seem willing to break his "singles swing" and try to drive the ball to the gaps and over the fence. It would lower his batting average to the .290-.300 range most likely, and his OBP would probably drop to .390 (his eye is still as good as any in the game but with the more aggressive style comes swinging earlier in the count).

DX-it isn't about "swinging at everything" it's about changing your approach to align with the goal of driving in the run. In the 8th inning in a tie game your job is to get the go-ahead run in from third base. If you can do that by getting a hit, by all means do it. But Mauer had 2-3 pitches that were damn near perfect to get the ball to the outfield and get a sac fly. Earlier on in the game, he can risk trying to increase his batting average or OBP and work the count. Late in the game he has to get the run in.

[trixR4kids]

Thanks for the graph, it makes my point for me better than I did--three of the six pitches thrown were strikes over the plate and a fourth barely missed the zone. So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

3 strikes. Pitch number 2 was high and to the outside part of the plate, which I can't exactly imagine is his hot zone and even if it is it's not a bad pitch to take on pitch number 2. Nothing wrong with taking that pitch. Pitch 4 was some type of off speed crap. Not a bad pitch to take either if you're looking for a fast ball. Not that it matters because your argument is that he should be looking to get a hit early in the at bat and pitch 4 doesn't exactly qualify as that anyhow. The only pitch that does is pitch number 2 and that's high and on the outer half of the plate. So yes it's a silly argument for this at bat.

His job isn't to get on base in that spot--it's a tie game and we've got a guy on 3rd with no outs. Maybe you think it is and that's why we disagree. In that situation, he should be looking to expand his hitting zone (compared to what he normally might 'take' in say the first 6 innings or so) and get the ball in play somewhere to try and score a run. Even if it makes him look bad if he swings and misses a couple times. My critique is process/approach related and not outcome related. I wouldn't have even commented if he was up there swinging after the first ball--even if he had struck out.

Getting more runners on base is a good thing there actually. Especially with Willingham and Morneau coming up next. Driving in two runs is better than driving in one. The red sox suck so far this year but their hitting is good enough that driving in only one run might not win it anyhow, especially when your bullpen isn't much better than theirs. Not that it matters anyhow because it's always good to get more runners on base, I really can't think of any scenarios where that isn't the case. If you load the bases then they can't walk you anymore and have to throw strikes (and likely fastballs) at some point.

Pretty sure he expanded his zone on pitch number 6 anyhow judging by the location and the fact that it was off speed. I can't say I find anything wrong with the process on this particular at bat.

So here is the breakdown of pitch types. Only pitch two is what I would consider a driveable ball. However, that's on a 1-0 count and Mauer will probably take that pitch more often than not, especially when coming from a lefty at 95 mph.

Exactly. I mentioned that above too, I posted this before bed so I didn't take the time to post the pitch types as well. Most people aren't going to swing at a fastball on the outside upper corner in a 1-0 count. Especially on an opposite hand pitcher.

[Superstar]

Did the booth talk about the "rally bat" flying around the field last night? 1st it dive-bombed Parmelee, then that peregrine falcon that is often at the field was going after it. Actually got the bat in his talon's...TWICE. The WHOLE crowd was "OH!!!"ing the entire time. It was awesome!

[Bushwood Gopher]

Thanks for the graph, it makes my point for me better than I did--three of the six pitches thrown were strikes over the plate and a fourth barely missed the zone. So of three hittable pitches he swung once. How is my argument silly? He's the best contact hitter on the team. Do you not think he should be expected to get any of those three strikes in play?

3 strikes. Pitch number 2 was high and to the outside part of the plate, which I can't exactly imagine is his hot zone and even if it is it's not a bad pitch to take on pitch number 2. Nothing wrong with taking that pitch. Pitch 4 was some type of off speed crap. Not a bad pitch to take either if you're looking for a fast ball. Not that it matters because your argument is that he should be looking to get a hit early in the at bat and pitch 4 doesn't exactly qualify as that anyhow. The only pitch that does is pitch number 2 and that's high and on the outer half of the plate. So yes it's a silly argument for this at bat.

His job isn't to get on base in that spot--it's a tie game and we've got a guy on 3rd with no outs. Maybe you think it is and that's why we disagree. In that situation, he should be looking to expand his hitting zone (compared to what he normally might 'take' in say the first 6 innings or so) and get the ball in play somewhere to try and score a run. Even if it makes him look bad if he swings and misses a couple times. My critique is process/approach related and not outcome related. I wouldn't have even commented if he was up there swinging after the first ball--even if he had struck out.

Getting more runners on base is a good thing there actually. Especially with Willingham and Morneau coming up next. Driving in two runs is better than driving in one. The red sox suck so far this year but their hitting is good enough that driving in only one run might not win it anyhow, especially when your bullpen isn't much better than theirs. Not that it matters anyhow because it's always good to get more runners on base, I really can't think of any scenarios where that isn't the case. If you load the bases then they can't walk you anymore and have to throw strikes (and likely fastballs) at some point.

Pretty sure he expanded his zone on pitch number 6 anyhow judging by the location and the fact that it was off speed. I can't say I find anything wrong with the process on this particular at bat.

So here is the breakdown of pitch types. Only pitch two is what I would consider a driveable ball. However, that's on a 1-0 count and Mauer will probably take that pitch more often than not, especially when coming from a lefty at 95 mph.

Exactly. I mentioned that above too, I posted this before bed so I didn't take the time to post the pitch types as well. Most people aren't going to swing at a fastball on the outside upper corner in a 1-0 count. Especially on an opposite hand pitcher.

So the Twins, who play for one run in just about every spot imaginable, suddenly are now supposed to be looking for two runs or more in a tie game in the bottom of the 8th innning? This is Twilight Zone material you are advancing.

[trixR4kids]

It isn't about "driving the ball" it's about getting the GD run in from 3rd base with nobody out. That means all you have to do is get a fly ball to the outfield. On a 1-0 count, hitters should be ready to jump all over a fastball that is elevated (thigh-belt high) and catches a fat part of the plate. Mauer isn't. Plain and simple. He's more worried about his OBP than driving in runs.

I mean someone like Pujols probably gets a run there but I could even see him taking that pitch. And I wouldn't call that the fat part of the plate it pretty much hit the corner dead on. And the other pitches were worse

IMO, and this is just based on what I've seen from Mauer, he's more worried about getting on base for the guys behind him than driving in the runners who are on for him. There's nothing wrong with the mentality of having a .425 OBP in general, but it is a bad mentality for a 3 hitter. 3-4-5 in the lineup are supposed to be your run producers--guys with HR power and the mentality that, even if it means hitting a sac fly, I'm making sure that run gets across the plate. Mauer's strategy at the plate seems to be "I want to be on first base for the guys behind me," which is fine for a guy batting in the leadoff spot or the 2-hole so the 3-4-5 guys can drive the ball and get him in.

Well I've mentioned having Mauer hit leadoff but there's this pervasive myth that the leadoff guy needs to be fast. Really though you want someone with a high OBP who takes the most walks there because he gets the most at bats simply based on the order. The D-backs keep putting Bloomquist in that spot because he can steal but he doesn't get on base enough that it matters and he's certainly not one of the three best hitters on the team (one of which should occupy that spot).

I don't have time to address everything in that post as I have to end my lunch break soon but most of it was probably addressed in the other post anyhow.

[trixR4kids]

So the Twins, who play for one run in just about every spot imaginable, suddenly are now supposed to be looking for two runs or more in a tie game in the bottom of the 8th innning? This is Twilight Zone material you are advancing.

If they aren't they should be. Nothing wrong with getting on base in that situation. Especially when the power hitting 30 HR types that you guys love (and rightfully so) are going to be batting next anyhow.

[dxmnkd316]

First, you guys are reading these graphs wrong. They are from the umpire's perspective. Mauer is on the right hand side of these graphs. The second pitch was high and inside.

You and trix are completely missing my point. Getting on base is almost irrelevant there. He has to adjust his plate approach and get the ball in play even if it means an out. A fly ball out to the outfield is more valuable than a walk in that situation. I am somewhat amazed this has to be explained but I have given it my best attempt. His leverage is going to be early in the count, as reflected by pitches 2 - 4. The whole at bat to me looked like he was trying to work a walk. It's the same mentality that can allow him to attempt a bunt in an obvious run scoring situation like he did a year ago. He doesn't have a run producer's mentality. He's an on base guy, which is great but not for that situation specifically or the 3 hole in general.

A diatribe on his career OBP is completely beside the point and only further reinforces what I am saying. Of course he's wonderful at getting on base. That's not what they needed in the 8th inning with a guy on 3rd and no outs.

Man you missed the point completely on that post and decided to focus in on one thing that was barely related to my point. His job is to get a hit there. OBP was just a way for me to say that he’s going to get on base (a positive result) far more than a guy like Delmon who swings and every GD pitch that makes it 30 ft from the mound.

You want a guy who’s going to have an actual approach to an at bat rather than swinging at every strike. Just because it’s over the plate doesn’t mean you can get it to the outfield. The only pitch that could remotely meet that criteria is the second pitch. A two-seam fastball thrown by a left hander. It’s high and tight and since it’s a two-seamer, it’s cutting back towards Mauer late. That’s a good way to shatter a bat and get you nothing. The other two strikes (a curve and a changeup) were hardly worth swinging at. The curve would have been especially egregious if he swung.

On top of all of that, this was the first time Mauer had faced this pitcher that night and the first pitch was an 83 mph slider only to be elevated to a 96 mph two-seamer.

[Bushwood Gopher]

First, you guys are reading these graphs wrong. They are from the umpire's perspective. Mauer is on the right hand side of these graphs. The second pitch was high and inside.

You and trix are completely missing my point. Getting on base is almost irrelevant there. He has to adjust his plate approach and get the ball in play even if it means an out. A fly ball out to the outfield is more valuable than a walk in that situation. I am somewhat amazed this has to be explained but I have given it my best attempt. His leverage is going to be early in the count, as reflected by pitches 2 - 4. The whole at bat to me looked like he was trying to work a walk. It's the same mentality that can allow him to attempt a bunt in an obvious run scoring situation like he did a year ago. He doesn't have a run producer's mentality. He's an on base guy, which is great but not for that situation specifically or the 3 hole in general.

A diatribe on his career OBP is completely beside the point and only further reinforces what I am saying. Of course he's wonderful at getting on base. That's not what they needed in the 8th inning with a guy on 3rd and no outs.

His job is to get a hit there.

No it isn't and that's why we're never going to agree on this. His job is to score the run. Can he do it with a hit? Certainly, but it is easier done with a fly ball out on borderline pitches than it is waiting for the right pitch to get a hit with. I don't believe for a second he couldn't have gotten one of those three balls around the plate somewhere deep enough into the outfield to score Carroll, who runs very well. You and trix are looking at this through the prism of what pitches should he have swung at to get a hit. Since you guys don't think he had a good pitch to hit, you are fine with him taking questionable "hitting" pitches--though not questionable pitches for him to make contact with. We are in 100% agreement that he should have an approach at the plate. We just differ greatly on what the approach should be.

[Handyman]

I am with Bushwood...in the 8th inning of a tie game his job is to knock in the run plain and simple. If it was anyone but Mauer this would not even be discussed.

[sunbone]

I am with Bushwood...in the 8th inning of a tie game his job is to knock in the run plain and simple. If it was anyone but Mauer this would not even be discussed.

I need to mark this down. The day Handy, BG and I all agreed on something.

[Handyman]

When it comes to the Twins we tend to be on the same page...now the Vikes that is where all our paths diverge

[Composer]

1st inning. Mauer falls 0-2, singles to center
4th inning. Mauer falls 1-2, singles to left.
5th inning. Mauer walks on 6 pitches (no swings)
8th inning, Mauer gets to 3-2 count, grounds out.

1st point, Joe does not get all defensive when down 0-2. He's not Danny Valencia.

2nd point, with a man on 3rd and no outs with the 4 and 5 batters coming up, a full count is an excellent opportunity to do something with the ball. Drive a hit, hit a fly ball.

The pitcher beat him.

Yes he failed, but it is not the epic failure some are seeming to make of it.
Willingham and Morneau also failed.