Twins 2012 season

by **trixR4kids** » Thu 7/26/12 5:54 pm

Bushwood Gopher wrote:
sunbone wrote:
Bushwood Gopher wrote:Yeah Hardy absolutely sucks. 3rd on his team in HR, 4th in RBI and 2nd in Runs. The kind of numbers we haven't had from a shortstop in over 30 years.

Batting .221, OBP of .264. Slugging Pct is .364. Wonder which cap he'll wear to Cooperstown.

You're starting to sound a little bit like the stat geeks who justify Joe's 'value' because he's a prolific walker. Not a good look on you.

Joe is having a good season and Delmon isn't that's all that really needs to be said about that.

The problem isn't that Joe isn't valuable it's that he's getting paid way too much.

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Fri 7/27/12 8:05 pm

Bremer is talking about how much Scott Diamond is like Cliff Lee.

PST4 is getting awfully crowded...

by **Beauner** » Fri 7/27/12 10:45 pm

Both Morneau and Willingham hit 3-run HRs tonight. They were both mashed.
Diamond looked phenomenal. He threw 98 pitches today though, so he'll probably have to go to the DL tomorrow.

by **rowshkex** » Fri 7/27/12 11:00 pm

Beauner wrote:Both Morneau and Willingham hit 3-run HRs tonight. They were both mashed.
Diamond looked phenomenal. He threw 98 pitches today though, so he'll probably have to go to the DL tomorrow.

Diamond has been pretty stellar for most of the year... It's sad we don't have two more good pitchers. Our batting is actually solid and has brought itself up this year--our average is 0.002 points below the Yankees IIRC, and we're right in the middle of the pack for runs now this year.

Every time a star pitcher gets traded, I fume at the fact that management was unable to get ANYTHING for Santana...

by **Beauner** » Sat 7/28/12 6:58 am

rowshkex wrote:
Beauner wrote:Both Morneau and Willingham hit 3-run HRs tonight. They were both mashed.
Diamond looked phenomenal. He threw 98 pitches today though, so he'll probably have to go to the DL tomorrow.

Diamond has been pretty stellar for most of the year... It's sad we don't have two more good pitchers. Our batting is actually solid and has brought itself up this year--our average is 0.002 points below the Yankees IIRC, and we're right in the middle of the pack for runs now this year.

Every time a star pitcher gets traded, I fume at the fact that management was unable to get ANYTHING for Santana...

Our offense has been better than we are used to the Twins having, but we are 15th in the major leagues in runs scored. Our team batting average is 10th, which is solid, and our team OBP is 6th, but our slugging percentage is 20th.
Our pitching staff is 29th in ERA, ahead of only Colorado :oops:

by **Slap Shot** » Sat 7/28/12 10:35 am

The Twins offense is still not very good. They are 9th in R scored in the AL but 4th in their own division. Yes the pitching has been abysmal but let's not pretend the offense has been good enough to compete with the big boys even if they weren't last in pitching.

by **Beauner** » Sat 7/28/12 10:52 pm

Reports coming out that the Twins dealt Francisco Liriano to the White Sox.
White Sox send LHP Pedro Hernandez and SS/3B Eduardo Escobar.
Both have had a little MLB experience already. Hernandez and Escobar are both 23.

Escobar reportedly has been compared to Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Guillen on defense and is a career .270 hitter with a .351 slugging % in the minors. He only drew 139 walks in 577 games though.

Hernandez had 360 Ks and 78 walks in 428 IP, with a WHIP of 1.24 and an ERA of 3.42.

by **rowshkex** » Sat 7/28/12 11:12 pm

Beauner wrote:Reports coming out that the Twins dealt Francisco Liriano to the White Sox.
White Sox send LHP Pedro Hernandez and SS/3B Eduardo Escobar.
Both have had a little MLB experience already. Hernandez and Escobar are both 23.

Escobar reportedly has been compared to Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Guillen on defense and is a career .270 hitter with a .351 slugging % in the minors. He only drew 139 walks in 577 games though.

Hernandez had 360 Ks and 78 walks in 428 IP, with a WHIP of 1.24 and an ERA of 3.42.

: shrug.gif (1.08 KiB) Viewed 1148 times

by **sec 16 row16 seat 16 17** » Sun 7/29/12 9:48 am

they should have took the bag of ball's and tape.

by **streakygopher** » Sun 7/29/12 10:44 am

Beauner wrote:Reports coming out that the Twins dealt Francisco Liriano to the White Sox.
White Sox send LHP Pedro Hernandez and SS/3B Eduardo Escobar.
Both have had a little MLB experience already. Hernandez and Escobar are both 23.

Escobar reportedly has been compared to Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Guillen on defense and is a career .270 hitter with a .351 slugging % in the minors. He only drew 139 walks in 577 games though.

Hernandez had 360 Ks and 78 walks in 428 IP, with a WHIP of 1.24 and an ERA of 3.42.

Never make a trade to help a division opponent. Apparently both sides feel that's true. :wink:

Liriano may go down as one of the best original talents the Twins ever had. But he went from supernova in 2006 to serviceable at best. Oh well...next!

by **GopherFan85** » Sun 7/29/12 4:00 pm

streakygopher wrote:
Beauner wrote:Reports coming out that the Twins dealt Francisco Liriano to the White Sox.
White Sox send LHP Pedro Hernandez and SS/3B Eduardo Escobar.
Both have had a little MLB experience already. Hernandez and Escobar are both 23.

Escobar reportedly has been compared to Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Guillen on defense and is a career .270 hitter with a .351 slugging % in the minors. He only drew 139 walks in 577 games though.

Hernandez had 360 Ks and 78 walks in 428 IP, with a WHIP of 1.24 and an ERA of 3.42.

Never make a trade to help a division opponent. Apparently both sides feel that's true.

Liriano may go down as one of the best original talents the Twins ever had. But he went from supernova in 2006 to serviceable at best. Oh well...next!

Even if it helps Chicago, they only have him for a total of 62 games. After that he is a free agent in which they would have to spend possibly more than the Twins have paid him. Probably not but it could turn out that way. We have two prospects. The Twins should have got more but over the long term we could have these guys longer than the Sox have Liriano. So we'll have to wait to see how those two pan out. I can not even try to be PA like and try to put a positive spin on this.

Shall we start a debate on best and worst trades made by Terry Ryan?

by **Beauner** » Sun 7/29/12 4:21 pm

GopherFan85 wrote:Even if it helps Chicago, they only have him for a total of 62 games. After that he is a free agent in which they would have to spend possibly more than the Twins have paid him. Probably not but it could turn out that way. We have two prospects. The Twins should have got more but over the long term we could have these guys longer than the Sox have Liriano. So we'll have to wait to see how those two pan out. I can not even try to be PA like and try to put a positive spin on this.

Shall we start a debate on best and worst trades made by Terry Ryan?

Well according to Baseball Prospectus, Escobar is the White Sox 7th best prospect and Pedro Hernandez was 15th.
Either way, Liriano's time with the Twins was up. I'm glad we got something for him, and got something that could end up helping the team build depth in the infield and the rotation.

by **GopherFan85** » Sun 7/29/12 5:47 pm

Beauner wrote:
GopherFan85 wrote:Even if it helps Chicago, they only have him for a total of 62 games. After that he is a free agent in which they would have to spend possibly more than the Twins have paid him. Probably not but it could turn out that way. We have two prospects. The Twins should have got more but over the long term we could have these guys longer than the Sox have Liriano. So we'll have to wait to see how those two pan out. I can not even try to be PA like and try to put a positive spin on this.

Shall we start a debate on best and worst trades made by Terry Ryan?

Well according to Baseball Prospectus, Escobar is the White Sox 7th best prospect and Pedro Hernandez was 15th.
Either way, Liriano's time with the Twins was up. I'm glad we got something for him, and got something that could end up helping the team build depth in the infield and the rotation.

True Liriano's time was up with the Twins. Like you said I am glad we got something for him rather than walking (potentially) in free agency. I would think that maybe 1 prospect plus minor leaguer would have been better. Maybe this is all they could get but I doubt it.

by **rowshkex** » Sun 7/29/12 6:44 pm

What was Carlos Gomez's rank when we traded for him...?

by **GopherFan85** » Sun 7/29/12 7:58 pm

rowshkex wrote:What was Carlos Gomez's rank when we traded for him...?

Well he went from us to "A" ball for the Brewers. We had him way overrated I guess.

by **hrbekroenick** » Sun 7/29/12 9:20 pm

As highly touted as Frankie was and as much potential as he had, we barely got a squirt of pi$$ for him - no offense Erik Haula.

by **dryfly** » Mon 7/30/12 6:13 pm

GopherFan85 wrote: Maybe this is all they could get but I doubt it.

I was told earlier all we could get is a bucket of balls for him. so a couple low level prospects seems like we struck a pretty good deal. Unless the prospects are worth less than a bucket of balls.

Season is turning around - not only are we unlikely to lose 100 games [on pace for 93 as of right now]... considering where we were earlier we might even challenge 0.500 ...

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Mon 7/30/12 7:26 pm

All these idiots at Target Field that boo A.J. I would take him back in a nanosecond.

by **trixR4kids** » Mon 7/30/12 8:31 pm

Mauer is better.

by **dxmnkd316** » Mon 7/30/12 8:43 pm

trixR4kids wrote:Mauer is better.

Truth.

Also, I can't help but applaud the team for getting what they did for Liriano. Not entirely sure where they were going to get anything better. His time here was up. He's had his chances.

by **trixR4kids** » Mon 7/30/12 8:55 pm

Yeah the Whitesox like to try and work miracles with pitchers. See Jake Peavy. Good luck with Liriano though haha.

by **frozen4champs** » Mon 7/30/12 9:05 pm

Bring your glove to Tuesdays game--- Liriano vs Blackburn :shots:

by **Idontknow** » Mon 7/30/12 9:59 pm

So now that Liriano is gone, can we send his personal catcher back to the minors???? Please????

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Mon 7/30/12 10:28 pm

trixR4kids wrote:Mauer is better.

Give me AJ at 5M, a top of the rotation starter for 16M and a solid late inning reliever for 3M and you can have Joe. Deal?

by **dxmnkd316** » Mon 7/30/12 10:30 pm

Bushwood Gopher wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:Mauer is better.

... top of the rotation starter for 16M

Let me know when you find one of those available. I know a guy named Terry R... err, no that's too obvious, T. Ryan that is looking for one.

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Mon 7/30/12 10:34 pm

dxmnkd316 wrote:
Bushwood Gopher wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:Mauer is better.

... top of the rotation starter for 16M

Let me know when you find one of those available. I know a guy named Terry R... err, no that's too obvious, T. Ryan that is looking for one.

Pretty sure CJ Wilson signed a 5 yr $77M deal. And he's better than anything we have by a mile.

by **dxmnkd316** » Mon 7/30/12 10:43 pm

Pitchers:

Low Price, Free Agent, High Talent.

Pick two.

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Mon 7/30/12 11:07 pm

dxmnkd316 wrote:Pitchers:

Low Price, Free Agent, High Talent.

Pick two.

What's your point? I answered your question directly. One that you posed as something that was impossible.

The top two free agent pitchers available last year were CJ Wilson and Yu Darvish, both who signed for less than 16M per year.

by **dxmnkd316** » Mon 7/30/12 11:17 pm

Ok, you let me know who you think we can get for $16M this offseason.

by **trixR4kids** » Mon 7/30/12 11:40 pm

Bushwood Gopher wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:Mauer is better.

Give me AJ at 5M, a top of the rotation starter for 16M and a solid late inning reliever for 3M and you can have Joe. Deal?

Nobody said that Joe wasn't overpaid.

by **Handyman** » Tue 7/31/12 12:49 am

Who was catcher the last time the Twins won a playoff series?

Who has won a World Series Mauer or AJ?

Cue the outrage in 3...2...

by **trixR4kids** » Tue 7/31/12 8:22 am

Picture me trollin in my 500 Benz...

by **sunbone** » Tue 7/31/12 9:14 am

Bushwood Gopher wrote:All these idiots at Target Field that boo A.J. I would take him back in a nanosecond.

I have never understood this. AJ was a good player here. Then he got traded. He didn't leave via free agency. I guess Minnesotans require you to like it here so much that if you get traded you should immediately retire and stay here. The AJ trade was a pretty good deal for the Twins at the time, but we sure have missed having some guys who play with an edge.

by **Chris Eckes** » Tue 7/31/12 10:07 am

I like AJ too. Joe Mauer is much, much, much better, but I've never understood the AJ hate.

by **rowshkex** » Tue 7/31/12 10:09 am

Part of the hate is because Pierzynski is a d-bag, not because of him leaving.

by **Tee09** » Tue 7/31/12 10:13 am

rowshkex wrote:Part of the hate is because Pierzynski is a d-bag, not because of him leaving.

That was my impression as an outsider. He's kind of a dick.

by **sec 16 row16 seat 16 17** » Tue 7/31/12 10:37 am

i hope fransisco throws a no hitter tonight.

by **Hobey Baker** » Tue 7/31/12 11:10 am

Handyman wrote:Who was catcher the last time the Twins won a playoff series?

Who has won a World Series Mauer or AJ?

Cue the outrage in 3...2...

I don't get the AJ hate in this town. He was one of us until the Twins traded him. He is durable as hell.

by **Riff Raff** » Tue 7/31/12 11:20 am

sunbone wrote:
Bushwood Gopher wrote:All these idiots at Target Field that boo A.J. I would take him back in a nanosecond.

I have never understood this. AJ was a good player here. Then he got traded. He didn't leave via free agency. I guess Minnesotans require you to like it here so much that if you get traded you should immediately retire and stay here. The AJ trade was a pretty good deal for the Twins at the time, but we sure have missed having some guys who play with an edge.

My season ticket buddies and I discuss this just about every AJ at bat. AJ is part of a core of players (Torri, Jacque, Koskie, Dougie Baseball, Radke) that brought the Twins back from the abyss to be a consistantly competitive team. He busted his ass for us when he was here, and as you said - WAS TRADED!!!!! He didn't leave on his own. Not to mention that trade is probably going to go down as the best trade this team will have made in my generation. I would absolutely take his attitude (and his game) on this team right now.

by **Snowcool08** » Tue 7/31/12 12:02 pm

AJ is booed mostly for his attitude and not a whole lot to do with him playing here before. I do not get it and actually liked him when he was here. I think a group mentality is also to blame during the games. One fan starts booing and it just builds. I'm sure there are plenty of fans who have no idea why they are booing AJ, but still do it because everyone else is.

I am going to the game tonight and do plan on booing Liriano vigorously. He deserves to hear at least a little bit about the hope he destroyed, even if it was false hope.

by **streakygopher** » Tue 7/31/12 9:36 pm

AJ just sunk the Twins...wasting a rare great outing by Blackburn. Twins had more than one chance against Liriano and then Crain late in the game....but AJ did what Mauer couldn't.

by **Chris Eckes** » Tue 7/31/12 9:41 pm

lol @ the Mauer hate. One at bat by another player definitely is the best way to determine that he sucks

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Tue 7/31/12 9:42 pm

Honestly, has Mauer had even one hit that important at Target Field? I know he's much, much, much, much, much, much better than AJ so presumably there should be ample evidence of one....

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Tue 7/31/12 9:54 pm

Chris Eckes wrote:lol @ the Mauer hate. One at bat by another player definitely is the best way to determine that he sucks

Nobody said he sucks. Why do you guys do this? That isn't the argument. Nobody ever advanced it as such.

You're right about one at bat. So let's look at their last seven full seasons, where they have averaged:

Joe 11HR 69RBI 101 games started at C per yr
AJ 12 HR 58RBI 122 games started at C per yr

Or their career numbers:

Reg season lines:
Joe .324/.404/.469 OPS of .873
AJ .284/.324/.427 OPS of .751

Career playoff lines:
Joe .286/.359/.314 OPS of .673
1 extra base hit in 35 AB; 1RBI

AJ .300/.372/.520 OPS of .892
5HR 17RBI in 100 AB + 1 World Series Ring

Let's all pretend for just one minute that he wasn't born in a St. Paul hospital--do you really think everything above says that Joe is that much better than AJ? I just don't see it. Particularly when you factor in how anemic Joe has been in the postseason vs how clutch AJ has been.

by **streakygopher** » Tue 7/31/12 10:19 pm

Chris Eckes wrote:lol @ the Mauer hate. One at bat by another player definitely is the best way to determine that he sucks

Bottom line is Twins' hitters had Liriano in a tough spot late and then faced a spotty Crain - and failed both innings to secure the win.

by **The Rube** » Tue 7/31/12 10:32 pm

AJ is the perfect example of a guy who you hate because of his personality......unless he's on your side.

by **trixR4kids** » Tue 7/31/12 10:58 pm

BUT GUYS HE'S BETTER IN THE SMALL SAMPLE SIZE AND

HE HAS A RING!!!!

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Tue 7/31/12 11:04 pm

Very substantive trix. Did you read a single thing I wrote? Is 7 years enough sample size, or would you prefer to wait until they're in their 60s and collecting social security?

by **trixR4kids** » Tue 7/31/12 11:08 pm

Yes I read what you wrote. You seemingly ignored the enormous OBP difference and then used RBIs and HRs to say they're equal. That's not even getting into the advanced stats that also illustrate my point. Not to mention park factors

I couldn't care less about the small sample size playoff stats. They're essentially meaningless. As is being surrounded by superior talent and winning a ring.

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Tue 7/31/12 11:24 pm

trixR4kids wrote:Yes I read what you wrote. You seemingly ignored the enormous OBP difference and then used RBIs and HRs to say they're equal. That's not even getting into the advanced stats that also illustrate my point. Not to mention park factors

I couldn't care less about the small sample size playoff stats. They're essentially meaningless. As is being surrounded by superior talent and winning a ring.

I didn't ignore the OBP difference--if I had I wouldn't have listed it. I just have a hard time accepting the notion that Joe is a "much, much, much better" ballplayer (you didn't say it, I believe Chris Eckes did) because he's essentially a way more prolific walker. That's the essence of their difference as it relates to OBP.

Your point about the park differences is fair and a good one. I also don't see AJ having as big of a problem hitting for power here, notwithstanding the very small number of games he's played at TF to be sure.

You honestly think AJ has been surrounded by better talent for most of his time in Chicago than Joe has here? I don't agree at all.

by **trixR4kids** » Tue 7/31/12 11:50 pm

Bushwood Gopher wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:Yes I read what you wrote. You seemingly ignored the enormous OBP difference and then used RBIs and HRs to say they're equal. That's not even getting into the advanced stats that also illustrate my point. Not to mention park factors

I couldn't care less about the small sample size playoff stats. They're essentially meaningless. As is being surrounded by superior talent and winning a ring.

I didn't ignore the OBP difference--if I had I wouldn't have listed it. I just have a hard time accepting the notion that Joe is a "much, much, much better" ballplayer (you didn't say it, I believe Chris Eckes did) because he's essentially a way more prolific walker. That's the essence of their difference as it relates to OBP.

Your point about the park differences is fair and a good one. I also don't see AJ having as big of a problem hitting for power here, notwithstanding the very small number of games he's played at TF to be sure.

You honestly think AJ has been surrounded by better talent for most of his time in Chicago than Joe has here? I don't agree at all.

The year he won a world series he certainly was.

Having a high OBP and being a prolific walker is important. A walk is just as good as a single and really not that much worse than a double. By taking a walk you not only increase the likelihood of scoring runs that inning but it's also one less out. You also make the pitcher throw more pitches which likely adds to his fatigue and hopefully gets him out of the game faster. If you had a team of .404 OBP guys you'd be in great shape.

That's not to say swing for the fence types who strike out a lot are useless (see Adam Dunn), but in that case you better have good power numbers. If AJ's power was significantly higher than Mauer's then you'd have a point. But his career SLG% is also lower than Mauer's. AJ's power is better this year but that will probably regress at some point to career norms. It might not obviously, but that's the likely outcome.

So you have similar power numbers over their careers and a huge difference in OBP. To say he's a much much much better ballplayer this year is a stretch, but over their respective careers that probably isn't all that far off. During Mauer's worst year his wRC+ (weighted runs created compared to league average) was 100 (so exactly average). AJ over the Span of his career wRC+ is 92 (which is still good for a catcher).

So unless AJ is a lot better at blocking balls or is better at working with his pitchers then I really don't see how Mauer (this certainly could be, I wouldn't know) isn't significantly better (over the span of his career).

by **Hobey Baker** » Wed 8/01/12 12:02 am

Anyone asking why Gray in the 9th??

Anyone asking why Doumit was first pitch swinging when Liriano was struggling???

Twins scored more runs than anyone else in the AL in the month of July and had a 12-14 record.

A's went 19-4??? How is that possible???

by **dxmnkd316** » Wed 8/01/12 12:05 am

trixR4kids wrote:
Bushwood Gopher wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:Yes I read what you wrote. You seemingly ignored the enormous OBP difference and then used RBIs and HRs to say they're equal. That's not even getting into the advanced stats that also illustrate my point. Not to mention park factors

I couldn't care less about the small sample size playoff stats. They're essentially meaningless. As is being surrounded by superior talent and winning a ring.

I didn't ignore the OBP difference--if I had I wouldn't have listed it. I just have a hard time accepting the notion that Joe is a "much, much, much better" ballplayer (you didn't say it, I believe Chris Eckes did) because he's essentially a way more prolific walker. That's the essence of their difference as it relates to OBP.

Your point about the park differences is fair and a good one. I also don't see AJ having as big of a problem hitting for power here, notwithstanding the very small number of games he's played at TF to be sure.

You honestly think AJ has been surrounded by better talent for most of his time in Chicago than Joe has here? I don't agree at all.

The year he won a world series he certainly was.

Having a high OBP and being a prolific walker is important. A walk is just as good as a single and really not that much worse than a double. By taking a walk you not only increase the likelihood of scoring runs that inning but it's also one less out. You also make the pitcher throw more pitches which likely adds to his fatigue and hopefully gets him out of the game faster. If you had a team of .404 OBP guys you'd be in great shape.

That's not to say swing for the fence types who strike out a lot are useless (see Adam Dunn), but in that case you better have good power numbers. If AJ's power was significantly higher than Mauer's then you'd have a point. But his career SLG% is also lower than Mauer's. AJ's power is better this year but that will probably regress at some point to career norms. It might not obviously, but that's the likely outcome.

So you have similar power numbers over their careers and a huge difference in OBP. To say he's a much much much better ballplayer this year is a stretch, but over their respective careers that probably isn't all that far off. During Mauer's worst year his wRC+ (weighted runs created compared to league average) was 100 (so exactly average). AJ over the Span of his career wRC+ is 92 (which is still good for a catcher).

So unless AJ is a lot better at blocking balls or is better at working with his pitchers then I really don't see how Mauer (this certainly could be, I wouldn't know) isn't significantly better (over the span of his career).

He's never going to be convinced Mauer isn't the worst player in franchise history. Best to leave it alone or have fun with it.

That and the Twins front office can do no right. I mean, it's so friggin' easy to get an ace free agent. I mean, the fact that the Twins haven't gotten one at $16 million is an absolute indictment of the front office. Everyone but the Twins has an ace at $16 million.

by **psych** » Wed 8/01/12 12:33 am

Hobey Baker wrote:Anyone asking why Gray in the 9th??

Anyone asking why Doumit was first pitch swinging when Liriano was struggling???

Twins scored more runs than anyone else in the AL in the month of July and had a 12-14 record.

A's went 19-4??? How is that possible???

...major league pitching?

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Wed 8/01/12 12:41 am

dxmnkd316 wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:
Bushwood Gopher wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:Yes I read what you wrote. You seemingly ignored the enormous OBP difference and then used RBIs and HRs to say they're equal. That's not even getting into the advanced stats that also illustrate my point. Not to mention park factors

I couldn't care less about the small sample size playoff stats. They're essentially meaningless. As is being surrounded by superior talent and winning a ring.

I didn't ignore the OBP difference--if I had I wouldn't have listed it. I just have a hard time accepting the notion that Joe is a "much, much, much better" ballplayer (you didn't say it, I believe Chris Eckes did) because he's essentially a way more prolific walker. That's the essence of their difference as it relates to OBP.

Your point about the park differences is fair and a good one. I also don't see AJ having as big of a problem hitting for power here, notwithstanding the very small number of games he's played at TF to be sure.

You honestly think AJ has been surrounded by better talent for most of his time in Chicago than Joe has here? I don't agree at all.

The year he won a world series he certainly was.

Having a high OBP and being a prolific walker is important. A walk is just as good as a single and really not that much worse than a double. By taking a walk you not only increase the likelihood of scoring runs that inning but it's also one less out. You also make the pitcher throw more pitches which likely adds to his fatigue and hopefully gets him out of the game faster. If you had a team of .404 OBP guys you'd be in great shape.

That's not to say swing for the fence types who strike out a lot are useless (see Adam Dunn), but in that case you better have good power numbers. If AJ's power was significantly higher than Mauer's then you'd have a point. But his career SLG% is also lower than Mauer's. AJ's power is better this year but that will probably regress at some point to career norms. It might not obviously, but that's the likely outcome.

So you have similar power numbers over their careers and a huge difference in OBP. To say he's a much much much better ballplayer this year is a stretch, but over their respective careers that probably isn't all that far off. During Mauer's worst year his wRC+ (weighted runs created compared to league average) was 100 (so exactly average). AJ over the Span of his career wRC+ is 92 (which is still good for a catcher).

So unless AJ is a lot better at blocking balls or is better at working with his pitchers then I really don't see how Mauer (this certainly could be, I wouldn't know) isn't significantly better (over the span of his career).

He's never going to be convinced Mauer isn't the worst player in franchise history. Best to leave it alone or have fun with it.

That and the Twins front office can do no right. I mean, it's so friggin' easy to get an ace free agent. I mean, the fact that the Twins haven't gotten one at $16 million is an absolute indictment of the front office. Everyone but the Twins has an ace at $16 million.

You really are the king of straw men. What an asinine response. You post something as fact, it gets refuted in less than 5 minutes and then you can't let it go. So then you change the terms of the debate and start throwing around ridiculous false premises sprinkled in with your smartass commentary. Well done!

trix is making good points. You should try it sometime. And your memory isn't all that great either. I was about the only one here who defended the front office for the Santana situation.

by **Handyman** » Wed 8/01/12 1:00 am

I did too actually...I remember a few of us getting in huge fights with Hobey over the Santana deal for a few reasons.

Since when is 100 at bats in the postseason considered a small sample size?

And lol at the "AJ had a better team around him" bs...I seem to remember a Twins team with Mauer that also had a Cy Young winner and the MVP (along with other talent) and he still did dick in the playoffs. That must not count though

Mauer is more talented, AJ is more clutch...nothing wrong with admitting that.

by **Hobey Baker** » Wed 8/01/12 1:07 am

Handyman wrote:I did too actually...I remember a few of us getting in huge fights with Hobey over the Santana deal for a few reasons.

Since when is 100 at bats in the postseason considered a small sample size?

And lol at the "AJ had a better team around him" bs...I seem to remember a Twins team with Mauer that also had a Cy Young winner and the MVP (along with other talent) and he still did dick in the playoffs. That must not count though

Mauer is more talented, AJ is more clutch...nothing wrong with admitting that.

Fights regarding Santana ... refresh my memory please!

by **dxmnkd316** » Wed 8/01/12 7:15 am

Bushwood Gopher wrote:
dxmnkd316 wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:
Bushwood Gopher wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:Yes I read what you wrote. You seemingly ignored the enormous OBP difference and then used RBIs and HRs to say they're equal. That's not even getting into the advanced stats that also illustrate my point. Not to mention park factors

I couldn't care less about the small sample size playoff stats. They're essentially meaningless. As is being surrounded by superior talent and winning a ring.

I didn't ignore the OBP difference--if I had I wouldn't have listed it. I just have a hard time accepting the notion that Joe is a "much, much, much better" ballplayer (you didn't say it, I believe Chris Eckes did) because he's essentially a way more prolific walker. That's the essence of their difference as it relates to OBP.

Your point about the park differences is fair and a good one. I also don't see AJ having as big of a problem hitting for power here, notwithstanding the very small number of games he's played at TF to be sure.

You honestly think AJ has been surrounded by better talent for most of his time in Chicago than Joe has here? I don't agree at all.

The year he won a world series he certainly was.

Having a high OBP and being a prolific walker is important. A walk is just as good as a single and really not that much worse than a double. By taking a walk you not only increase the likelihood of scoring runs that inning but it's also one less out. You also make the pitcher throw more pitches which likely adds to his fatigue and hopefully gets him out of the game faster. If you had a team of .404 OBP guys you'd be in great shape.

That's not to say swing for the fence types who strike out a lot are useless (see Adam Dunn), but in that case you better have good power numbers. If AJ's power was significantly higher than Mauer's then you'd have a point. But his career SLG% is also lower than Mauer's. AJ's power is better this year but that will probably regress at some point to career norms. It might not obviously, but that's the likely outcome.

So you have similar power numbers over their careers and a huge difference in OBP. To say he's a much much much better ballplayer this year is a stretch, but over their respective careers that probably isn't all that far off. During Mauer's worst year his wRC+ (weighted runs created compared to league average) was 100 (so exactly average). AJ over the Span of his career wRC+ is 92 (which is still good for a catcher).

So unless AJ is a lot better at blocking balls or is better at working with his pitchers then I really don't see how Mauer (this certainly could be, I wouldn't know) isn't significantly better (over the span of his career).

He's never going to be convinced Mauer isn't the worst player in franchise history. Best to leave it alone or have fun with it.

That and the Twins front office can do no right. I mean, it's so friggin' easy to get an ace free agent. I mean, the fact that the Twins haven't gotten one at $16 million is an absolute indictment of the front office. Everyone but the Twins has an ace at $16 million.

You really are the king of straw men. What an asinine response. You post something as fact, it gets refuted in less than 5 minutes and then you can't let it go. So then you change the terms of the debate and start throwing around ridiculous false premises sprinkled in with your smartass commentary. Well done!

trix is making good points. You should try it sometime. And your memory isn't all that great either. I was about the only one here who defended the front office for the Santana situation.

by **trixR4kids** » Wed 8/01/12 8:26 am

Handyman wrote:Since when is 100 at bats in the postseason considered a small sample size?

100? Try 39. Not even gonna debate "more clutch" based on 39 plate appearances. That's kinda silly.

And lol at the "AJ had a better team around him" bs...I seem to remember a Twins team with Mauer that also had a Cy Young winner and the MVP (along with other talent) and he still did dick in the playoffs. That must not count though

To act like it's somehow Joe's fault that the team couldn't beat the Yankees in any of those series is laughable. Obviously he takes part of the blame but you make it sound like this is a tennis match and he's the only one to blame. When it comes down to it none of those teams were good enough or hot enough at the right time.

by **gopher wes** » Wed 8/01/12 8:41 am

The Rube wrote:AJ is the perfect example of a guy who you hate because of his personality......unless he's on your side.

Exactly. I'm pretty sure that is why Twins fans now boo AJ when he comes back to Minnesota and, quite honestly, I don't blame anyone that does. That guy is a d-head. Maybe he was like that here, but I never noticed it.

by **Chris Eckes** » Wed 8/01/12 8:53 am

There is no such thing as clutch

by **team22tank** » Wed 8/01/12 9:02 am

Chris Eckes wrote:There is no such thing as clutch

by **Gopherguy05** » Wed 8/01/12 9:06 am

Hobey Baker wrote:Anyone asking why Gray in the 9th??

Anyone asking why Doumit was first pitch swinging when Liriano was struggling???

Twins scored more runs than anyone else in the AL in the month of July and had a 12-14 record.

A's went 19-4??? How is that possible???

All the media did. All you have to do is read a game story to see that Burnett and Burton were unavailable last night and Gardy didn't want to use Perkins unless it was a save situation because if he used him last night he would not have been available for this afternoon's game.

Just going to take a guess....pitching??

by **Chris Eckes** » Wed 8/01/12 9:28 am

team22tank wrote:
Chris Eckes wrote:There is no such thing as clutch

Over a large enough sample size of "clutch" situations, players will always fall right around their career averages. I'm willing to bet that guys who are notoriously "un-clutch" (Joe Mauer) and guys who are notoriously "clutch" (David Ortiz, Derek Jeter) are performing at or around their career averages in clutch situations - the difference is much more in availability heuristic than anything IMO.

You can't claim past clutchness as a predictor of future clutchness. However, we can measure past clutchness, and if we do, there is a statistic for it, found below:

NUMBERS: David Ortiz - 0.90 "Clutch" rating over career, Derek Jeter - 1.4 "Clutch" rating, Joe Mauer - 1.94 "clutch" rating. Numbers from Fangraphs. So I guess Joe Mauer is more clutch over his career than Jeter or Ortiz have been.

by **Hobey Baker** » Wed 8/01/12 11:44 am

Chris Eckes wrote:
team22tank wrote:
Chris Eckes wrote:There is no such thing as clutch

Over a large enough sample size of "clutch" situations, players will always fall right around their career averages. I'm willing to bet that guys who are notoriously "un-clutch" (Joe Mauer) and guys who are notoriously "clutch" (David Ortiz, Derek Jeter) are performing at or around their career averages in clutch situations - the difference is much more in availability heuristic than anything IMO.

You can't claim past clutchness as a predictor of future clutchness. However, we can measure past clutchness, and if we do, there is a statistic for it, found below:

NUMBERS: David Ortiz - 0.90 "Clutch" rating over career, Derek Jeter - 1.4 "Clutch" rating, Joe Mauer - 1.94 "clutch" rating. Numbers from Fangraphs. So I guess Joe Mauer is more clutch over his career than Jeter or Ortiz have been.

No chance ..

by **Chris Eckes** » Wed 8/01/12 11:49 am

Lolwut? There's actual DATA that goes into those statistics, not just someone watching one at bat with runners on base and saying "that guy ALWAYS strikes out".

by **trixR4kids** » Wed 8/01/12 11:52 am

Chris Eckes wrote:Lolwut? There's actual DATA that goes into those statistics, not just someone watching one at bat with runners on base and saying "that guy ALWAYS strikes out".

BUT GUYS MY GUT TELLS ME......

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Wed 8/01/12 12:11 pm

Chris Eckes wrote:Lolwut? There's actual DATA that goes into those statistics, not just someone watching one at bat with runners on base and saying "that guy ALWAYS strikes out".

What are the assumptions that drive the data in this particular instance? Do you understand them well enough to determine if the stat is meaningful or not? Just curious.

Some of the assumptions behind the saber stats are rather dubious. Take WAR for example. There is no "average minor league baseball player" that can be input into a lineup when a starter isn't playing. But every starter in baseball does have a known backup. And that measurement of the given starter's Win Above Replacement should be calculated against a known quantity (i.e. his backup, which probably can't be done anyway because how do you quantitatively compute 'non-performance' for someone?) rather than a league wide fictitious benchmark. Here's what ends up happening to some of the highly prized and oft referenced DATA because of it: Players that excel at a position relative to their minor league replacement, but have a really capable backup, are overvalued according to their WAR (at the risk of further beating up on Joe Mauer--think of him this year with Ryan Doumit. Doumit has been extremely productive and there isn't that big of a dropoff offensively between the two. But my guess is Joe shows an extremely wide gap between his 'replacement' per the accepted WAR calculation, and has a high WAR because of it). Conversely, the Delmon Young of 2010, who was arguably our best offensive player that year, showed a relatively low WAR notwithstanding that his actual replacement was Rene Tosoni. Does anybody think that we weren't significantly better with DY in the lineup than Tosoni?

Data is only as good as the assumptions that drive it. I am highly skeptical of certain key saber stats because I think their assumptions are flawed to begin with.

by **Chris Eckes** » Wed 8/01/12 12:27 pm

Fair enough. I'm not sure that I buy using the player's actual backup on the roster to determine a stat that evaluates players on a leaguewide basis like WAR, but I can understand how WAR should be adjusted to determine that player's ACTUAL IMPACT on a team based upon the backups available on the team.

I've done enough reading on these stats to believe in their validity. If anyone else is interested, here's a link to an explanation of the "Clutch" stat (as well as more links to further delve into it if you'd like):

Fangraphs: Clutch

by **rowshkex** » Wed 8/01/12 12:41 pm

Data based on some informed (yet subjective) statistical analysis is much more appropriate and probably accurate than "insights" and perceptions. I'll take sabers any day over "consensus" and opinion... Although I, too, will remain skeptical. :-D

by **trixR4kids** » Wed 8/01/12 12:56 pm

Bushwood Gopher wrote:
Chris Eckes wrote:Lolwut? There's actual DATA that goes into those statistics, not just someone watching one at bat with runners on base and saying "that guy ALWAYS strikes out".

What are the assumptions that drive the data in this particular instance? Do you understand them well enough to determine if the stat is meaningful or not? Just curious.

It takes a decent sample size for certain numbers to stablize. Generally power numbers for batters stabilize fairly quickly. For pitchers k/bb ratio will as well. 39 is extremely tiny. If a minor leaguer with 39 plate attempts is hitting like David Ortiz you're probably going to wait and see if those numbers are for real or not. Same is true in the other direction.

As for WAR nobody is claiming that it's a perfect metric but it does give you some idea of how valuable a player is. I don't really have time to argue the specifics of it but it doesn't really apply to the Joe Mauer discussion anyway. If you don't like WAR (which has different calculations among saber sites) then maybe use wRC+ to get an idea of how a player's offense relates to league average.

by **Five-HoleFrenzy** » Wed 8/01/12 3:07 pm

"Cold hearted orb that rules the night
Removes the colors from our sight
Red is grey and yellow white
But we decide which is right
And which is an illusion"

by **Handyman** » Wed 8/01/12 3:50 pm

edit: nevermind do not wish to further beating the dead horse. We will never agree..

by **Beauner** » Wed 8/01/12 7:23 pm

trixR4kids wrote:A walk is just as good as a single and really not that much worse than a double.

No it isn't. It is significantly worse than a double, too.
4 walks = 1 run. 3 singles = 1 run. 1 double + 1 single = 1 run.
Walks to lead off an inning? Sweet. Great. Fantastic. As long as one of the guys behind you can get you to 2B and another guy can drive you in.
Walks with runners on base? Meh. There is a reason people IBB guys when a base is open. Because a walk is not nearly as good as a hit. I'm kinda surprised Sabermetrics guys are even arguing for that.
To equate a walk with a hit is one of my biggest pet peeves. Nobody is taking an extra base on a walk. EVER. People take extra bases on singles and doubles all the time.

OBP is important, but it isn't everything. You need to be able to drive runners in.
There's an old saying that you can't walk off the island. It works for baseball too.

As far as the clutch thing--I went to a baseball-statistics lecture thing in high school that found basically the exact same thing. The "clutch" hitting stat is bogus. It basically has to do with our bias in remembering clutch hits/chokes and how often they come up in "clutch" situations. If a guy hits .295 for his career, he'll probably end up hitting roughly .295 in clutch spots.

by **Bushwood Gopher** » Wed 8/01/12 8:44 pm

Beauner wrote:
trixR4kids wrote:A walk is just as good as a single and really not that much worse than a double.

No it isn't. It is significantly worse than a double, too.
4 walks = 1 run. 3 singles = 1 run. 1 double + 1 single = 1 run.
Walks to lead off an inning? Sweet. Great. Fantastic. As long as one of the guys behind you can get you to 2B and another guy can drive you in.
Walks with runners on base? Meh. There is a reason people IBB guys when a base is open. Because a walk is not nearly as good as a hit. I'm kinda surprised Sabermetrics guys are even arguing for that.
To equate a walk with a hit is one of my biggest pet peeves. Nobody is taking an extra base on a walk. EVER. People take extra bases on singles and doubles all the time.

OBP is important, but it isn't everything. You need to be able to drive runners in.
There's an old saying that you can't walk off the island. It works for baseball too.

As far as the clutch thing--I went to a baseball-statistics lecture thing in high school that found basically the exact same thing. The "clutch" hitting stat is bogus. It basically has to do with our bias in remembering clutch hits/chokes and how often they come up in "clutch" situations. If a guy hits .295 for his career, he'll probably end up hitting roughly .295 in clutch spots.

This is extremely well put. Bravo Beauner. Bravo. :goodpost:

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